Liberty vs Mercury: WNBA Odds, Expert Picks (Tuesday, June 18)
Breanna Stewart #30 of the New York Liberty handles the ball during the game against the Phoenix Mercury. (Photo by Catalina Fragoso/NBAE via Getty Images)
Liberty vs. Mercury Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 +5 | 170.5 -110o/-110u | -227 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-110 -110 | 170.5 -110o/-110u | +190 |
The Phoenix Mercury welcome a rested New York Liberty team to Footprint Center in a 10 p.m. ET matchup on CBS Sports Network. The Liberty have an agenda to push their win streak to nine straight games, but the Mercury lineup that they have previously faced won't be the same.
With Brittney Griner back in the mix for Phoenix, the Liberty will find themselves having to adjust to a Mercury team who is finding their upside this season.
Let's break down the best bet and pick for tonight's New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury showdown.
New York Liberty
The Liberty played just one game last week, allowing them to focus all their energy on their Saturday road game vs. the Aces, which resulted in an impressive 90-82 New York win. Jonquel Jones wowed with a career high 34 points on 12 of 16 shooting, knocking down four of five from three. Over her last three games, Jones has averaged 28.3 points per game. The Liberty now sit at 12-2 straight up after winning eight straight and covering five of their last six games.
As they prepare for their next assignment against the Mercury, both of these teams feature talented starting fives with Phoenix’s only improving since their last matchup. New York last played Phoenix on May 29th, a game they won 81-78, but did not cover as 14 point favorites. The game finished 14 points under the total of 173. However, it was Natasha Mack down low for Phoenix, not Brittney Griner, and Mack only managed to add four points. The Liberty also continue to be without their star point guard, Courtney Vandersloot, who played in the last Mercury matchup but is listed as doubtful (personal) for this game.
Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury are playing their third home game in a row, on one day’s rest after taking down the Seattle Storm on Sunday, 87-78. Playing in one of the league’s largest venues, packed with their passionate X-Factor fans presents a formidable home court advantage for Phoenix as per usual.
However, one of their new advantages this season is head coach Nate Tibbetts who has opted for a faster, 3-point heavy scheme, maximizing both the potential of Phoenix’s familiar faces and its talented new additions. Their dynamic offense became even more potent with the recent return of Brittney Griner to the lineup.
Since Griner’s return, they have gone 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS. In her last three games, she has averaged 25.7 points, 9 rebounds, 2.7 assists and two blocks, all while shooting 64.6% from the field. Currently, the Liberty lead the league in offensive rating at 106.9, but with BG on the court, Phoenix has an offensive rating of 110.9. Coach Tibbets new free-flowing scheme has improved spacing and as a result allowed more time for Griner to create offense down low.
Griner is one of four players in this matchup that will be headed to the 2024 Paris Olympics looking to win Team USA’s 8th consecutive gold. But in this matchup, all eyes should be on Copper. Phoenix’s Kahleah Copper (who is also headed to Paris this year) just notched her fifth 30 point performance of the season, which is currently the most in the league. Furthermore, despite the Mercury’s increased pace of play, Copper’s turnover rate (13.2%) has remained relatively low despite registering the highest usage rate in the league (33.5%).
Liberty vs. Mercury
Betting Pick & Prediction
The total is five points lower than the last time these teams played, but still seems high. Phoenix has gone under in four of their last six games, and one of those overs was an overtime win vs Dallas (that only saw 156 points scored in regulation.) The other over happened against the Aces (second in offensive rating, first in pace, tenth in defensive rating.)
New York has the decided defensive advantage here, giving up just 76.4 points per game (3rd in the league), while Phoenix is giving up 85.3 points per game (9th in the league.) That said, the Liberty should win, but the Mercury are at home and are continuing to trend upward, so I’d bet we see a closely contested matchup.
Pick: Mercury +5.5 | Under 168.5
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