You could argue this is the most enjoyable pure basketball outcome.
The New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx have been the best two WNBA teams all season.
The Liberty, a core WNBA franchise since its inception nearly 30 years ago, played in the WNBA's inaugural game in June of 1997. When the league began, it started with eight teams, and of those eight, only the Liberty, Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury still exist. And of those WNBA originals, only the Liberty remain without a championship. They've gone to the Finals five times: 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002 and in 2023; they currently have the most WNBA Finals defeats without a victory.
Then, you have the Lynx, who were four-time WNBA Champions at their franchise peak, and are currently the best they've been since. The Lynx ran the W, winning titles every other year from 2011-2017, a core led by Women's Basketball and future Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame inductee, Maya Moore. In that stretch, the Lynx reached the Finals four times in six years.
Their current head coach — Cheryl Reeve — has been with the organization since 2010, so she knows a thing or two or a thousand about competing at this level.
Minnesota Lynx: Not The Team To Sleep On
Lynx entered the season +4000 to win the WNBA Title. They were tied with the God damn Atlanta Dream and L.A. Sparks — who combined to win 23 games this season. The Lynx? They went 30-10 — their preseason over/under was 16.5 wins.
In terms of punching above their preseason weight, there isn't much of a precedent for the Lynx, but given how underrated they were heading into the season, that's probably on all the masses evaluation of the team, not the actual team.
Napheesa Collier entered the season as, debatably, a top five player in the W, who emerged to have a strong case for top two or three as she continues to produce at the peak of her powers. Collier is, so far, the Playoff MVP, averaging 27.1 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game on about 55/45/88 shooting.
But Collier isn't doing this without help. Courtney Williams, who finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting, is in the midst of a playoff leap, up to 13.7 points and 5.9 assists on 45/40/90 shooting post-season after torching the Connecticut Sun in the semis.
Kayla McBride is back up to 13.6 points and two made threes per game in the playoffs an explosive 19 points to close out Connecticut last game.
The Lynx averaged over 81 points per game against the league's best defense, making them look absolutely clueless with their off-ball activity and constant cutting to the basket, which will undoubtedly keep the Liberty on the move all series. The Lynx also shot 48 percent from the field and 36 percent from deep against Connecticut on just over 21 attempts from three per contest.
Oh, and the Lynx just so happened to go 3-1 against the Liberty during the regular season, more on that shortly.
New York Liberty: Who's The X-Factor for the Libs?
The Lynx weren't supposed to be here, the Liberty are.
Their pre-season win/total was at 30.5 and they went over, finishing 32-8 and securing the best record in the WNBA. And they entered at +250 to win the title, a price that slowly dropped in value throughout the season, and currently, is more than merely flipped as they're heavy favorites.
The Liberty, however, went 1-3 against the Lynx this season.
The Liberty lost in Minnesota 84-67 on May 25, both teams were within their first few games of the season. The Liberty lost to the Lynx at the UBS Arena on Long Island 94-89 in the Commissioner's Cup Final played on June 25. The Liberty beat them a week later at Barclays Center on July 2, 76-67. And in their most recent match-up, the Lynx beat the Liberty in Brooklyn 88-79 on September 15. Health didn't have a major effect heading into any of these contests as both teams either.
The regular season match-ups don't always mean a damn thing, to be honest.
Just last year, the Liberty went 3-2 against the Las Vegas Aces in the regular season, including a Commissioner's Cup Final Smackdown, winning 82-63. Hell, the Liberty had a 99-61 win among those three also. But all that was grenade launched out the 22-story building once A'ja Wilson and the Aces met them in the Finals, where they won the series in four and, at Barclays, celebrated a second consecutive title.
The Liberty this year did improve, and coming into the Finals, they got over the Aces hump, beating them 3-1 in the semifinals, accumulating a +14 point differential despite a 14-point loss in a bounce-back Game 3 for the now former defending champs.
But, is this series going to be a come down after beating the team like it was for the Minnesota Timberwolves after beating the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals earlier this year before being gentlemen's swept by the Dallas Mavericks in the West Finals?
That's the question.
Breanna Stewart is on point. She averaged 21.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game in the Aces series, though she only shot 44 percent from the field and 29 percent from three. Sabrina Ionescu has rediscovered her shot after a late-season skid, up to 48 percent from three against Vegas while adding 17.8 points per game. And Jonquel Jones is coming off another productive series after having had 13.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game against the Aces while hitting 6-for-12 from three.
And X-factor to watch? Sixth Woman of the Year runner-up Leonie Fiebich, who chipped in over eight points per game against Vegas on 55/47 shooting.
Lynx vs Liberty Picks & Prediction: WNBA Finals Series Preview
I think the Liberty are going to win the series. I'm intrigued by Liberty in 4 and in 5, both +300 or better. I'll likely play one and log in the Action App, where you can follow me, before tip-off. But as a best bet, you gotta trust the consistency of Stewart. She had games of 38-18, 24-11, 17-17 and 20-11 against the Lynx. Jones may not produce enough and Ionescu could be too up and down against this Lynx backcourt. Stewie for MVP has better value than betting the Liberty straight up and is functionally the same thing.
Also, it helps that she has two Finals MVP's already, one of five multi-time winners ever, and is the favorite to get a third — which would make her second to Cynthia Cooper, who has four.
Best Bet: Breanna Stewart Finals MVP +110 (Bet 365)
