The Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut tip off Game 4, which could be a potential closeout spot for the visiting Lynx team. After winning Game 3, they re-established home-court advantage and took a 2-1 edge in the series.
The Game 4 market has been very flat in both the totals and spread, which is a bit to be expected at now with three games of data to rely upon. The Sun are home favorites by -1.5, and the total has been 153.5 since open.
I have seen no movement, and that is something I am consistently looking for. I do want to back points and production in this game because this is the highest the total has been in the series thus far.
Lynx vs. Sun Player Props
Courtney Williams o11.5 Points (-115)
Williams already has two standout games in this series, scoring 17 in Game 2 and following it up with another 16 in a road Game 3. She is playing with supreme confidence, and it is exactly what the Lynx needs.
This matchup provides size and physicality for the Sun, and Williams becomes the key cog in beating the Sun with her speed. She can attack the rim, pull up off the dribble in the mid-range, or catch and shoot on a three. Expect her to look for her shot again in this matchup.
Brionna Jones u10.5 Points (-115)
Despite having a strong Game 3, Jones is not a great fit in this series. The Lynx space five out and bring in more shooting off the bench.
Jones is a bit of a defensive liability for the Sun and, in this matchup, should not play in the best five rotations. I want to fade her prior production and expect the odd fit to shine again. She was nowhere to be found in Game 1, the only game the Sun won. She played well in a loss, but the team atmosphere is very impactful here on the brink of elimination.
Kayla McBride o2.5 3PM (+120)
Getting McBuckets at plus-money to knock down big shots in a big game is a gift. Her regular season 3-point percentage of 41% has taken a dip in the playoffs down to 32. However, the volume is still there at over six attempts per game in the postseason.
I expect a minute increase for a star two-way player in a closeout game and her scoring to be called up here. If she shoots average or above-average volume, a positive regression game is a nice plus-money hit. This price shows an implied probability of 45%, while her odds on this line throughout the season were close to 55%.
Partly is a decreased total, but that can be a false flag on player props in the postseason as individual minutes increase. McBride has played 36 minutes this postseason, up from her 31 in the regular season.
