The WNBA took Monday off, but the league is back with a monster five-game slate on Tuesday, September 17, that includes a matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Los Angeles Sparks. It’s the calm before the storm because the playoffs begin this Sunday.
Keep reading for a quick preview and my prediction for this Mercury vs Sparks game.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks Prediction
This 161.5 line is a bit low to me based on projected offensive success and pace. The over is, therefore, indicated in this matchup.
Sparks vs. Mercury Pick: Over 161.5 Total Points
Sparks vs. Mercury Odds
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 162.5 -108o / -112u | -152 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 162.5 -108o / -112u | +124 |
- Mercury vs. Sparks point spread: Mercury -2.5 | Sparks +2.5
- Mercury vs. Sparks over/under: 162.5 total points scored
- Mercury vs. Sparks moneylines: Mercury -152 | Sparks +124
Phoenix Mercury: No Copper Should Affect Outcome
The Mercury clinched a playoff spot and are locked into the seventh seed. That likely means a first-round matchup against the Minnesota Lynx, who own a sparkling 29-9 record and have outscored opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions on average.
Phoenix not fighting for seeding may impact its rotation in this contest against Los Angeles. Kahleah Copper has now missed the past two games for the Mercury with a back injury. It’s not considered serious and another day of rest should be the decision here because this battle lacks playoff implications.
In an ideal world, every team wants to enter the postseason red-hot, but ensuring that the top scorer is as healthy as possible must headline the priority list, though.
Therefore, it appears more probable that Copper remains sidelined, which definitely needs to be factored into any bet from this game.
Los Angeles Sparks: Grinding Until the End
The Sparks deserve a round of applause. Even though they own the worst record in the W and are missing numerous key players, Los Angeles has played quality teams relatively close. There’s no sense of casual, careless play in the atmosphere, and that “onto next season” mentality is definitely understandable right now.
Cameron Brink and Lexie Brown are once again out. Aari McDonald may also join them, as she has missed nearly the last two weeks due to injury. McDonald is a key playmaker for the offense and averages 3.7 assists per game. Her absence would be a significant blow to Los Angeles’ already struggling offense.
Mercury vs. Sparks: Plenty of Offense to Go Around
Betting Pick & Prediction
I’m taking the over even though I expect Copper (21.6 points per game) to miss the contest.
Mercury’s Offense: Brittney Griner is still a devastating interior scorer despite clearly being on the wrong side of 30, and it’s a juicy matchup. The Sparks' defense has surrendered the second-largest restricted area field goal percentage and largest paint field goal percentage over their last 15 games. Los Angeles simply cannot stop slashers or bigs, so look for Griner to be highly productive.
Spot-up shooters also often burn them. Phoenix isn’t exactly the greatest perimeter team despite Diana Taurasi, Sophie Cunningham, and Natasha Cloud all being capable of getting hot from deep. With Griner anchoring the scoring and Phoenix’s outside shooters benefiting, I like the Mercury to have a nice offensive game against Los Angeles’ struggling defense.
Sparks' Offense: Griner’s rim deterrence is certainly a roadblock, yet the Sparks’ outlook may be brighter than expected. Azura Stevens’ 3-point touch can frequently pull Griner away from the basket or out of the action, while Dearica Hamby and Odyssey Sims are lighting it up inside the arc. They can balance each other well on the offensive end here.
Speaking of hot streaks, Rickea Jackson has averaged 17.9 points per game while shooting 46.3% from 3-point range across her past ten games. The rookie looks comfortable and adjusted, which is terrifying for opposing defenses.
Los Angeles has enough creation and shooting to make some noise against Phoenix’s mediocre defense. They also love to push the pace, and extra possessions mean more points.
Overall, I would play this line up to 163 total points.
Sparks vs. Mercury Pick: Over 161.5 Total Points
How to Watch Mercury vs. Sparks
| Mercury vs. Sparks | Tuesday, September 17 |
| Start Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California |
Mercury vs. Sparks is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET live from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California on Tuesday. This WNBA matchup between the playoff bound Mercury and Rickea Jackson and the Sparks is on CBS Sports Network and streaming on Fubo.
