The Minnesota Lynx will have revenge on their minds in the semifinals.
The Lynx got their asses beat in Game 1 of last year's first-round series against the Connecticut Sun 90-60 before forcing a Game 2 with an 82-75 response.
But in Game 3 at home, they lost 90-75 to the Sun, who eventually took a 1-0 lead over the New York Liberty with a similar effort to start last year's semifinals.
Minnesota Lynx Odds vs. Sun
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | +154 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 155 -110 / -110 | -192 |
- Lynx vs. Sun spread: Lynx -4.5
- Lynx vs. Sun over/under: 155 points
- Lynx vs. Sun moneylines: Sun +154, Lynx +192
Why The Minnesota Lynx Can Cover In Game 1
As mentioned in the Connecticut Sun Outlook, the totals here will be important. But as it relates to the Lynx, in particular, they'll be something to watch at home.
Currently, they're listed at 79.5 points over or under. This season, in three games against the Sun, they've only gone over once, and that was because of overtime.
They went over 100 points for the third and fourth times this season in both playoff outings against the defensively challenged Phoenix Mercury, but by all accounts, the Lynx and Sun were the best two defenses in the W during the regular season, and this is a series that could see a lot of unders, in theory. But it's worth noting that the Game 1 total opened at 150.5 and has jumped up four points since — perhaps the former line was a little too low.
Napheesa Collier needs to be discussed because holy sh*t.
The four-time All-Star hit another gear in Round 1, scoring 38 and 42 points, respectively, in the sweep.
Collier's over/under is 23.5 points for Game 1 — she had 25 against the Sun in Connecticut on Sept. 17, nine against them at home on July 4, and 31 on May 23 — 28 in regulation before overtime.
Additionally, the secondary scoring will be key for the Lynx to navigate this series, and this is where Kayla McBride needs to come into play.
The four-time All-Star wing averaged 15.0 points per game during the season, her most since 2018. She had 20 and then 15 last round.
Mcbride had 13, 13 and 14 points in the three games against the Sun this year, going over her constant 2.5 threes prop twice.
Sun vs. Lynx
Betting Pick & Prediction for the Lynx: Take Minnesota On The Under
OK — maybe this won't be under 150.5, who knows, but I don't think we see 80 points from either side in Game 1. You seldom see teams drop 80 against the Sun or the Lynx, so I'm going with neither side having a great offensive showing in the opener despite what they did in Round 1, albeit against much much lesser defenses, respectfully.
Pick: Lynx Total Team Under 79.5 Points (FanDuel -113)
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Sun vs. Lynx | Sunday, September 29 |
| Start Time: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Sun vs. Lynx is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET live from Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Wednesday. Game 1 of the semifinals WNBA playoff matchup is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
Minnesota Lynx Betting Trends
- Lynx are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Lynx are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Lynx are 15-6 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Lynx' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Lynx' 20 last games at home.
