In the 1999 WNBA Finals, the New York Liberty's Teresa Weatherspoon sank a buzzer-beating, half-court shot over the Houston Comets to cap off an 18-point rally. Twenty-five years later, it was New York's turn to blow an 18-point lead, with the Minnesota Lynx pulling off an epic comeback to win Game 1 95-93 in overtime.
Given the capitulating collapse, one would expect at least some kind of a response from the Liberty. As a result, we've seen New York bet up to -7.5 after opening as 5.5-point favorites.
However, I believe the power ratings between these teams were already askew coming into the WNBA Finals.
The problem is that history is not on the Lynx's side heading into Game 2. And since I'm not willing to lay the points with New York, I plan to back Minnesota by targeting some player props for my Lynx vs Liberty picks for Game 2.
Minnesota Lynx Game 2 Odds vs. New York Liberty
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 -112 | 163.5 -108o / -112u | +265 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 163.5 -108o / -112u | -350 |
- Lynx vs. Liberty Spread: Lynx +7.5 (-112), Liberty -7.5 (-108)
- Lynx vs. Liberty Over/Under: 163.5 points (-108o / -112u)
- Lynx Moneyline: Lynx +265, Liberty -350
Why The Minnesota Lynx Can Cover Game 2
For the second time this season, New York suffered a loss to Minnesota despite having a massive edge on the offensive glass. In the Commissioner's Cup Championship, New York grabbed 15 offensive boards compared to just four for Minnesota and lost 94-89.
In Game 1, New York had a 20-5 advantage on the offensive glass and attempted 19 more shots, yet it still wasn't enough. Thus, I have difficulty deciding if Minnesota has just been lucky or whether New York is simply incompetent.
However, to say that Minnesota has been lucky would be an unfair characterization of a team that's been remarkably consistent, posting a +8.0 Net Rating during the regular season.
The Lynx's biggest strength is that they're incredibly efficient and balanced. Minnesota constantly hunts for high-quality shots in its offensive sets, which explains why it led the league with 23 assists per game.
That approach of moving the basketball can help keep you in a game when your shots are not falling because you're still getting good looks at the basket.
It's almost unfathomable to think that a team can trail by 18 points and still shoot over 50% in the game.
In addition to being the best 3-point shooting team (38%), Minnesota also plays impeccable defense and has the second-best rating (94.8) behind Connecticut (94.1). Its ability to do both successfully is why Minnesota succeeded in rallying despite such a heavy deficit.
New York shot 44.8% from the floor in the regular season, yet against Minnesota, that number dropped to 38%.
You can dance around it all you like, but Minnesota seems to know the right combinations to give New York fits.
Lynx vs. Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction
My model made Minnesota 3.5-point underdogs entering this series, and I'd adjust that number to five for Game 2 with the Liberty out for revenge in a bounce-back spot.
With Minnesota catching 7.5 points on the road, this should be an autoplay on the Lynx. However, research shows that playoff favorites who are laying six or more points and are coming off a defeat in a game they led by five or more points, against an opponent they have multiple losses against, are a perfect 5-0 against the spread.
As a result, I'm willing to sit on the sidelines and not go up against that trend. The good news is there are other ways to back the Lynx.
While the Liberty will likely sell out to try and stop Napheesa Collier inside the paint, it's Minnesota's guard play that's caught my attention.
Courtney Williams has put together back-to-back 20-point performances for Minnesota while playing more minutes (28.9 vs. 26.5) during the playoffs and scoring more points (14.9 vs. 11.1) than in the regular season.
Let's not forget that Williams averaged 16.5 points three years ago with Atlanta.
The South Florida product can do a little bit of everything, from scoring, rebounding or dishing the rock. She also has some dog in her, with the way she plays with a chip on her shoulder.
Williams won't be backing down in this matchup as she's gone over 22.5 points, rebounds and assists in five of her last six games in this spot on the road and against the Liberty.
She has a knack for thriving in a hostile environment, and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon.
We'll stay within the Minnesota backcourt for our second play, with Kayla McBride going over her rebounds and assists prop of 5.5. McBride is averaging almost an additional assist per game in the playoffs (4.1 vs. 3.2) and has played a big part in Minnesota's philosophy of sharing the ball.
Although McBride is shooting slightly worse from the perimeter (36.7% vs. 40.7%) in the playoffs, she's still contributing enough to help her team win.
She's gone over 5.5 rebounds and assists in five straight road contests and nine of her last 10 games.
Collier might be the best player on the Lynx, but it's the selflessness of Minnesota's guards that hold the guiding principle for how Minnesota plays basketball.
Picks: Courtney Williams over 22.5 points+rebounds+assists (-106 at FanDuel) | Kayla McBride over 5.5 rebounds+assists (-135 at bet365)
How to Watch Lynx vs. Liberty Game 2
| Liberty vs. Lynx | Sunday, October 13 |
| Start Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Lynx vs. Liberty is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET live from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. on Sunday.
Game 2 of the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and Courtney Williams and the Minnesota Lynx, is on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
