The Minnesota Lynx lost homecourt with their Game 1 loss, but did win 77-70 in Game 2.
The victory gives them a shot to force a tiebreaker in Game 3, which would take back homecourt and give them a shot at winning the series on the road in Game 4, or closing in Game 5.
Minnesota Lynx Game 3 Odds vs. Sun
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 151.5 -110 / -110 | +114 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 151.5 -110 / -110 | -135 |
- Lynx spread vs. Sun: Lynx +2.5
- Lynx vs. Sun over/under: 151.5 points
- Lynx moneyline vs. Sun: Lynx +114 to win outright
Why The Minnesota Lynx Can Cover in Game 3
The Lynx covered in Game 2 against the Sun, where they entered favored by -5. And obviously, they failed to cover in Game 1 with a 73-70 loss to the Sun despite being narrow favorites.
The Lynx have also been playing to the under as both games in this series have fallen short of their totals. They absolutely blitzed the Phoenix Mercury in Round 1, but stylistically, those games were not going to reflect what was coming from the experienced Sun, who have the only defense statistically better than the Lynx from this past regular season.
From a player prop perspective, the Lynx did not get the bulk of their secondary offense from Kayla McBride last game, as I pondered if they would in my preview beforehand. Instead, the team won thanks to — other than a combination of pesky defense and poor Sun shooting — behind a playoff-high 17 points from veteran guard Courtney Williams, followed by another playoff-high of 15 from Alanna Smith.
Williams has only scored 17 or more points four other times this season, none since September 1. She shot 6-for-13 from the field and made her only three-point attempt, while also dishing out four assists. Smith's 15 came on an efficient 6-of-8 shooting with 3-of-4 makes from deep.
McBride (11 points on 4-of-10 shooting) and Napheesa Collier (nine points on 3-of-14 shooting) didn't need to carry the offense, which shot 42 percent from three in the win, much higher than the Sun who were at 25 percent.
Collier and McBride haven't gotten points overs yet this series. For Game 3, Collier is at 20.5 and McBride at 14.5. Collier has gotten 19 and nine, while McBride's ended at 12 and 11.
Lynx vs. Sun
Betting Pick & Prediction
It makes me nervous, but I like Collier to go under on her points total again. She was at around 23.5 for Game 1 and went way under, and nowhere near that in Game 2. But this is a difficult match-up stylistically, and the Lynx may need to rely on perimeter shooting again, which Collier can create, but I think the Sun will lock in on the MVP candidate once more and force a number of difficult looks in another back and forth affair. She is too good to get constant unders, but the Sun defense is elite, and now, they're at home.
Pick: Napheesa Collier Under 20.5 Points
How to Watch Sun vs. Lynx: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Lynx vs. Sun | Friday, October 4 |
| Start Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN 2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, Connecticut |
Lynx vs. Sun is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET live from Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, Connecticut on Friday. Game 3 of the semifinals WNBA playoff matchup is airing on TV on ESPN 2 and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
Minnesota Lynx Betting Trends
- Lynx are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Lynx are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Lynx are 15-6 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Lynx' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Lynx' 20 last games at home.
