It wasn't as dramatic a collapse as Game 1 — but the Minnesota Lynx blew it.
The New York Liberty, who gave up homecourt by falling apart in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals, took it back in Game 3 despite a less-than-stellar performance.
Their resiliency and defensive effort in the second half, capped off by an already historic three-point shot by Sabrina Ionescu to win the game, puts the Lynx on the brink.
Luckily for them, they're at home with a chance to force a winner-take-all Game 4.
Minnesota Lynx Game 4 Odds vs. Liberty
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | -145 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
- Lynx vs. Liberty Spread: Lynx +2.5
- Lynx vs. Liberty Over/Under: 158.5 points
- Lynx Moneyline: Lynx +120
Why The Minnesota Lynx Can Cover In Game 4
The Lynx are the reason we got a third consecutive first quarter over — but also the reason we ultimately got a second straight under on the game total.
The Lynx blitzed the Liberty with 28 first quarter points, but never cracked 20 again for the remainder of the contest. They mounted as much as a 15-point lead, which the Liberty continually chewed into before finally taking the lead deep in the fourth quarter.
The Lynx went under their team total of 78.5, and the game fell under the 160.5-point tally, both narrow misses in Game 3. The Lynx are listed at 78.5 for Game 4, as far as their total team over/under goes, and the total at 159, slightly down from Game 3.
Their first quarter over/under is 19.5, which they've cleared twice and got hooked on in Game 1.
Player prop-wise, the scenery isn't much different. Napheesa Collier broke the all-time single postseason scoring record last night, and recorded 22 points, narrowly going over. Her points prop is listed at 20.5 in Game 4, which is the most sensible number given that she's gone for 21, 16 and 22 in that order this series. Kayla McBride's is listed at 13.5 points, and she's gotten to 22, eight and 19, in order. And Courtney Williams, who was absolutely electric in both Brooklyn games, fell back down to earth with 12 points on 4-of-14 shooting in Game 3, and she's at 12.5.
Other markets worth monitoring: McBride is always a threat to go over 2.5 threes — which she is plus money to do in multiple books — and she's already gotten five and four in Game's 1 and 3, with a narrow miss in Game 2, finishing with 2-of-6 makes from deep. Collier's points, rebounds and assists prop (PRA) is a popular look this series. She's at 33.5 again, and has hovered in this range for the whole series. She's gotten, in order, 31, 27 and 33 — all unders.
Liberty vs. Lynx: Tale of Two Halves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Because the Lynx have been a quality offensive first half team the last two games, I think it will be worth looking for live betting opportunities at their under for the second half. Or, after a slow offensive start, a second half over might be the move, given what we saw in Game 1.
Here's the half-to-half scoring distribution from Games 1 through 3.
Game 1: First half — 36 points, Second half — 48 points, Overtime — 11 points
Game 2: First half — 39 points, Second half — 27 points
Game 3: First half — 43 points, Second half — 34 points
Heading into Game 4, the Lynx's first-half prop is 39.5 points. I'd rather react to that live number given how difficult Game 4 is to project.
My Pick: Live bet 2H under if 1H goes over, or 2H over if 1H goes under
How to Watch Game 4 of the WNBA Finals
| Liberty vs. Lynx | Friday, October 18 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Lynx vs. Liberty is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Friday.
After a thrilling end to Game 3 and the Liberty up 2-1 in the series, Game 4 of the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx is on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV, and other streaming platforms as the Lynx see if they can save their season and push for a decisive Game 5.
