Most recently, it was Bridget Carleton's clutch free throws with two seconds remaining in the fourth quarter that gave Minnesota an 82-80 victory in Game 4. For whatever reason, it seems like the Lynx have yet to fully earn its deserved respect, whether from the oddsmakers or the public.
After all, Minnesota is a steep 6-point underdog in Sunday's series finale, in what very well could be another game that's decided by one possession. Read below for my Lynx vs. Liberty Game 5 preview and my WNBA picks for Sunday, October 20.
Minnesota Lynx Game 5 Odds vs. New York Liberty
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | +200 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | -250 |
- Liberty vs. Lynx Spread: Liberty -5.5
- Liberty vs. Lynx Over/Under: 157.5 points
- Liberty Moneyline: Liberty -250
Why The Minnesota Lynx Can Cover In Game 5
The Lynx continue to win games in this series despite getting dominated on the glass. In Game 4, New York out-rebounded Minnesota 40-31 and had a 9-5 edge on the offensive glass.
However, despite attempting fewer shots (71-65), Minnesota remains efficient offensively, shooting at a higher field goal percentage (44.6% vs. 43.7%) while capitalizing on New York's turnovers.
The Lynx converted 16 of the Liberty's turnovers into 19 points and conceded only 10 points off their 13 turnovers. Minnesota seems to do just enough little things to come out on top in some of these games, even when the underlying stats favor New York.
While these discrepancies can happen occasionally, the reality is that it's been a common theme throughout this head-to-head series. These teams have already played eight times this season, and Minnesota holds a 5-3 lead.
New York tends to struggle when it doesn't get big performances out of its two stars, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. Both players combined for just 21 points on 10-of-36 shooting, including a 0-for-9 stat line from beyond the arc in their latest loss.
Minnesota has shown a willingness to attack New York's best players, whether it's Kayla McBride hounding Ionescu all over the court, or using its frontcourt players to challenge Stewart.
According to ESPN, the Lynx scored 26 points on 9-of-14 shooting when Stewart was the primary defender. The Lynx might not have the same level of star power as New York, but they have every bit of the quality and an underdog mentality that it rightly belongs on the biggest stage.
Lynx vs. Liberty: Bet on Minnesota to Cover the Spread
Betting Pick & Prediction
One thing about this Lynx team is that it rarely beats itself. Minnesota plays excellent defense, shares the basketball and limits its turnovers. Its best player, Napheesa Collier, has played 40 or more minutes three times in this series, while doing a decent enough job to stay out of foul trouble.
Collier sets the standard for Minnesota both with her commitment and hard work defensively.
Picking a winner in Game 5 will likely come down to defense, and that theory is supported by the movement of the total, which is down to as low as 156 after opening at 159.5. Given the low total compared to the other games in this series, there's a defensive correlation here that we also must be mindful of.
Minnesota has proven to be the better defensive team from an efficiency standpoint, thus making the underdog even more valuable with six points in our pocket.
