After dropping Game 1 to the Connecticut Sun at home, the Minnesota Lynx rallied with a seven-point win in Game 2 to even up the series at 1-1.
This WNBA semifinals matchup now becomes a best-of-three series, and with Connecticut flipping home-court advantage, the Lynx will have to grab at least one road win to make the Finals.
Which team will take a pivotal 2-1 series lead with a Game 3 win? We lay out our Lynx vs. Sun prediction and picks for Game 3 below.
Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction
Connecticut returns to its home floor for Game 3 of this semifinals series against the Minnesota Lynx with a tied 1-1 series.
The Sun have done an exceptional job defending Napheesa Collier and kept their last outing close (seven-point loss) despite shooting their worst percentage from the field since Aug. 18.
That won't happen again in Game 3 at home, where their net rating has been 4.3 points higher this season.
Lynx vs. Sun Pick: Connecticut Sun Moneyline (-135, BetMGM)
Lynx vs. Sun Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | +114 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 151.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Minnesota Lynx: Chance to Steal Game 3
Two points.
That’s how many points the MVP runner-up, Collier, had at halftime of Game 2 in the Lynx's WNBA semifinals against Connecticut.
Despite the fact that Collier only finished the game with nine points on 3-of-14 shooting from the field, Minnesota was still able to squeeze out a seven-point victory at home in Game 2 behind strong performances from Courtney Williams (17 points) and Alanna Smith (15 points).
As a team, Minnesota shot 45.2% from the field and 42.1% from 3-point land and, most importantly, won the rebounding battle, which was the first time it had been able to do that so far this postseason.
If the Lynx can continue their hot shooting from Game 2 and win the rebounding battle, they have a chance to steal Game 3.
Connecticut Sun: Must Dominate the Glass
Before Game 2, Connecticut had been playing some of its best basketball of the season, particularly on the offensive end of the floor. In fact, the Sun had shot 44.1% from the floor and 39% from deep through the first three games of the postseason.
Unfortunately, the Sun struggled offensively in Game 2, putting up a team shooting split of 36/25/85. But somehow, the Sun managed to keep that game, which was on the road, to just seven points by the final horn.
Connecticut must dominate on the glass in Game 3 if it hopes to get one step closer to a series upset. A positive shooting regression should be expected, but the difference between winning and losing could come on the glass.
Lynx vs. Sun
Betting Pick & Prediction
From a 30,000-foot view, it must seem like a good spot to back the Lynx. They just won by seven points without Collier and McBride playing well and seem to have recaptured the momentum that drove them to a dominant second half of the 2024 season.
However, Connecticut played about as poorly as it could have offensively and was still within striking distance of the Lynx, who even knocked down 42% of their 3s.
Further, the Sun have played superb defense on Collier, holding her to merely 14 points per game on only 33.3% shooting from the floor and 16.7% from behind the arc. That might not have mattered for Minnesota's offense in Game 2, but more often than not it will matter.
In this case, the Sun should squeak an ugly one out at home.
Sun vs. Lynx Pick: Connecticut Sun Moneyline (-135, BetMGM)
How to Watch Lynx vs. Sun Game 3
| Sun vs. Lynx | Friday, October 4 |
| Start Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN 2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, Connecticut |
Lynx vs. Sun is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from the Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, Connecticut on Friday. Game 3 of the WNBA Playoffs semifinals matchup between the Connecticut Sun and the Minnesota Lynx is airing on TV on ESPN 2 and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
