The Lynx wasted no time flipping home-court advantage back in their favor after a dominating Game 3 win on the road against Connecticut.
Minnesota boasts a 2-1 series lead and only needs one more win in the next two games to clinch a Finals berth.
Will the Sun stave off the Lynx and force a Game 5? Read more for my Sun vs Lynx prediction.
Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction
Connecticut's half-court offense has been an atrocity in the past two games; it has been slow to get into its sets and Marina Mabrey has gone ice-cold, particularly from deep.
Mabrey's shooting is what has propelled the Sun to reasonable offensive output in the second half of the WNBA regular season and playoffs.
On the other hand, the Lynx seemed to have figured out how to dissect Connecticut's stout defense, shooting roughly 57% from the floor in Game 3. We give a slight lean to the Lynx to win outright and move on to the Finals at plus-money.
Sun vs. Lynx Pick: Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (+110, Caesars)
Lynx vs. Sun Odds
Minnesota Lynx: When Collier Leads, Team Follows
MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier finally got comfortable in Game 3, pouring in 26 points on 11-for-19 shooting from the floor. During the past two outings against Connecticut, Collier struggled to knock down shots, only getting 33.3% of her attempts to fall in that stretch.
However, she has seemingly left that slump in the rearview mirror, and the rest of the Lynx players followed suit.
Minnesota looked surgical in the half-court in Game 3, converting on 57.4% of its field goal attempts en route to a 90-point outing against a Sun team that held opponents to an average of merely 73.6 points per game, the lowest of any team in the W.
Connecticut Sun: Figuring It Out
While the Sun only lost by nine, they were “womanhandled” the whole game. They started slow and only (finally) started to find their footing in the fourth quarter.
Early in the game, Connecticut consistently missed rotational assignments and was beaten at the point-of-attack for straight-line drive layups. It was uncharacteristic for one of the W’s best defensive teams, particularly in the half-court. However, no evidence will change entering Game 4.
It certainly didn’t help that the Sun shot a frighteningly poor 3-for-20 from behind the arc; it was the second consecutive game that Connecticut had issues with 3-point shooting.
If the Sun hope to extend this series to a Game 5, they will have to hit 3-point looks, get into their offensive sets quicker, and lock down defensively.
Lynx vs. Sun
Betting Pick & Prediction: Hard to Back the Sun
Right now, it is nearly impossible to feel comfortable backing the Sun, who have only hit eight of their last 40 3-point attempts. Conversely, Minnesota has dissected this Connecticut defense, executing its half-court sets at an elite level.
The Lynx have a +12.8 net rating in their past two games behind suffocating defense and surgical offense. Collier also finally shook off an underwhelming start to this series, dropping 26 points on "AT" and the rest of this Connecticut team, so her confidence should be back.
Taking the best team in the league over the past seven-ish weeks at plus-money is our slight lean here. Connecticut could rally and get hot from deep, but the Lynx have been superb defensively in their past two games. The same cannot be said for Connecticut.
Sun vs. Lynx Pick: Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (+110, Caesars)
How to Watch Lynx vs. Sun Game 4
| Sun vs. Lynx | Sunday, October 6 |
| Start Time: | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, Connecticut |
Lynx vs. Sun is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET from the Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, Connecticut, on Sunday. Game 4 of the WNBA Playoffs semifinals matchup between the Connecticut Sun and the Minnesota Lynx is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
