The Minnesota Lynx take a 1-0 2024 WNBA Finals series lead into Game 2 against the New York Liberty on Sunday, tipping off at 3 p.m. ET on ABC and streaming on YouTube TV, ESPN+ and other streaming platforms.
The Liberty are consensus 7.5-point favorites over the Lynx on the spread (Liberty -7.5), with the over/under currently set at 162.5 points. New York is a -355 favorite on the moneyline to even the series, with Minnesota a +280 underdog to take a commanding 2-0 lead.
Let's get into my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions and my WNBA picks for Game 2 of the Finals on Sunday.
Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction
Many of us are on the Liberty in Game 2, and I'll give my full reasoning later in this piece.
My Liberty vs. Lynx best bet is on New York to cover the spread in the first quarter. Make sure to shop around for the best lines on all your best with our live WNBA odds page.
Lynx vs. Liberty Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 163.5 -108o / -112u | +280 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 163.5 -108o / -112u | -355 |
- Lynx vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -7.5
- Lynx vs. Liberty over/under: 162.5 points
- Lynx vs. Liberty moneyline: Liberty -355, Lynx +280
- My Pick: Liberty -2.5 1Q
Lynx vs. Libery WNBA Finals Game 2 Preview
What the hell was Game 1?
The Minnesota Lynx did not steal it from the New York Liberty despite not leading until the very end of regulation — they took that s—.
They're the only team in WNBA history to be down by 15 or more points with five minutes left of a playoff game and win — teams are now 1-183 in that situation.
The Lynx are the one.
The Lynx have now put the Liberty in the same position they themselves were in after losing Game 1 to the Connecticut Sun before closing them out in five.
The Liberty also lost a home Game 1 against the Sun last semifinals in 2023 before winning three straight en route to a WNBA Finals appearance.
Minnesota Lynx: Williams The Most Intriguing For Game 2
The Lynx covered in Game 1, needless to say, and also won on the moneyline as a fairly heavy dog. Additionally, the game went over the 159 total in regulation even before the overtime period.
Both total team overs cashed as a result, as well.
The Lynx shot about 51/41/93 from the field in the win over the Liberty and had three 20-point scorers in Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, and Courtney Williams, who absolutely stole the show in the waning moments.
Williams' points prop is one of the most intriguing on the board given that the over/under is 12.5. The Liberty backcourt will likely struggle with her for most of this series, and Williams is also rolling in these playoffs.
Williams had 23 last game, 12 in the second half alone, and another five in overtime.
The electric combo guard has cleared 12.5 points in four of her last five, and the only under was 11 — all overs were at least at 16.
Collier is back at 20.5 points, which she has gone over in four straight, though she went over just once in four regular season tries.
Of note, the Lynx points prop is 77.5 — they've cleared this tally in four of five against New York, and the only miss was their lone loss.
New York Liberty: Will Libs Put Up Projected Points?
The Liberty shot 38/39/86 against the Lynx in Game 1 in their blunder, where they led by as many as 18 points and managed to lose.
The Libs took 11 more (33 to 22) and made four more (13 to nine) three-pointers and were nearly a full wash from free throw (12-of-14 to 14-of-15 from Minnesota) but were neutralized from two-point range, struggling at the rim and with their in-between game.
The Liberty shot 21-of-57 from two and had a true shooting percentage of 48.4, 13 percentage points worse than the Lynx.
After outscoring Minnesota 32-19 after one, they were outscored 76-61 from the second quarter on.
Jonquel Jones led with 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting and pulled down 10 boards. Sabrina Ionescu (19 points on 8-of-26 shooting) and Breanna Stewart (18 points on 6-of-21 shooting) both struggled mightily from the floor. Leonie Fiebich's performance of five made threes and 17 points didn't prove to be enough help either.
Fiebich is listed at 9.5 points and 1.5 threes. She has cleared the points in three straight and the threes in six of seven playoff games.
Stewart is at 21.5 points, Jones at 14.5 points, and both overs are plus money.
Ionescu is at 18.5 and at 2.5 threes, both overs are juiced.
Their total team over/under sits at 84.5 points. In Game 1, they ended regulation with 84 exactly, no thanks to a last second missed free throw from Stewart. Against the Lynx, they've gone over this just once in regulation, and twice including Game 1.
You worry about this just being a bad match-up for the Liberty. They've lost to the Lynx four times in five games this season. But they outplayed this team for 35 minutes until a historic late-game rally from Minnesota, and even then, it took a missed free throw to send this to overtime, where the Liberty couldn't buy one.
But the Liberty have historical trends in their favor. In the WNBA Finals, at home, when the previous favorite loses and are favored the following game, they're 8-0 and 7-0-1 against the spread.
I prefer the first quarter just because the line has jumped from -6 to -8 ish in short order, and I'm more confident in a great Liberty start than covering a spread closing in on double figures. Plus, they just cleared this, and the Lynx have been great in second quarters.
Liberty vs. Lynx Pick: Liberty -2.5 1Q
How to Watch Lynx vs. Liberty Game 2
| Liberty vs. Lynx | Sunday, October 13 |
| Start Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Liberty vs. Lynx is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET live from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Sunday. Game 2 of the WNBA Finals is on ABC and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
