The top two seeds in the WNBA will meet in the finals as the New York Liberty host the Minnesota Lynx for Game 1 on Thursday night.
New York looked dominant in the semifinals, knocking off the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in four games.
As for Minnesota, it needed a Game 5 to get past the Connecticut Sun.
It's easy to justify the Liberty being a heavy favorite (-290) in this series as they finished with the most regular season wins (32) and were the only team to post a double-digit Net Rating (+11.7), but it's worth noting that New York went just 1-3 against Minnesota this season.
There's something about Minnesota that troubles New York and in this preview, I'll explain why the extra rest might not necessarily benefit Liberty backers in Game 1.
My Liberty vs. Lynx prediction is below.
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction
New York hasn't quite been able to figure out the Lynx this season. The Liberty have just one win in four games against Minnesota, yet are 6.5-point favorites in Game 1. Even with the extra rest, bettors should be suspicious of laying the points with the home team in this spot.
Liberty vs. Lynx Pick: Lynx +6.5 or better (-114 at FanDuel)
Lynx vs. Liberty Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 159 -110 / -110 | +220 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 159 -110 / -110 | -280 |
Minnesota Lynx: Watch for the 3 Ball
On paper, one might've thought a semifinal matchup between Minnesota and Connecticut would've been a bit dry.
Not that it wouldn't be entertaining, but they were the two best defensive teams in the league and also ranked in the bottom three in pace.
Both teams combined to score fewer than 150 points in the first two games, but scored 165 or more in the final three contests.
That change in approach speaks to Minnesota's versatility and ability to win with different styles.
Minnesota finished tied for third with New York in field-goal percentage (44.8%). However, it shot a league-best 38% on 3-pointers, while New York finished fifth at 34.9%.
Although New York is the more aggressive team from beyond the arc, Minnesota has the better shooters.
Thus, if the Lynx can get into one of their grooves from the perimeter, there's not much the Liberty can do to slow Minnesota down.
New York Liberty: Libs Have Edge Inside
New York's biggest challenge in this series will be to avoid falling in love with the 3. Opponents shot a league-worst 30.1% from the perimeter against Minnesota during the regular season.
Winning games is never easy when shooting that poorly from deep.
New York should have an edge on the interior as forwards Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones give the Liberty a formidable threat.
Stewart and Jones helped pace a New York team that finished in a tie for the league lead in rebounds (36.6). By controlling the glass, New York can also generate second-chance points.
In comparison, the Lynx finished last in scoring inside the paint (28.1), despite another stellar campaign from the MVP runner-up, Napheesa Collier.
However, given Minnesota's personnel, losing the battle inside might be a tradeoff it's willing to make.
The Lynx did beef up their frontcourt by adding veteran forward Myisha Hines-Allen before the trade deadline. Hines-Allen has only averaged 11.7 minutes during the postseason, but did log 20 minutes in Minnesota's 88-79 victory over New York in September.
Lynx vs. Liberty Betting Pick & Prediction
One of the Liberty's three losses to the Lynx came in the Commissioner's Cup Championship (94-89). New York outrebounded Minnesota 43-25, but still lost the game.
It's not often you see a team lose despite controlling the glass by such a wide margin.
Minnesota (15.7) also forces nearly two more turnovers per game than New York (14.0). In the previous round, we saw the Aces have some success in sending multiple players to blitz Liberty point guard Sabrina Ionescu.
Not much separates these teams, which makes Minnesota extremely attractive as a 6.5-point underdog.
But if you're still unconvinced, it might interest you to know that since 2018, WNBA home favorites in Game 1 of a third-round playoff series laying at least six points with three or more days of rest are 0-7 against the spread.
Since my model makes New York closer to a 3.5-point favorite, there's enough of an edge to warrant a play on the visitors.
Liberty vs. Lynx Pick: Lynx +6.5 or Better (-114 at FanDuel)
How to Watch Lynx vs. Liberty Game 1
| Liberty vs. Lynx | Thursday, October 10 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Lynx vs. Liberty is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Thursday.
Game 1 of the WNBA Finals between the team with the league's best record this season, the New York Liberty, and Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx is on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
