For the eighth time in league history, we have Game 5 in the WNBA Finals.
Home teams are 5-2 straight up in Game 7's, with the road teams winning in 2007 — the Phoenix Mercury beating the Detroit Shock, and the Los Angeles Sparks beating the Minnesota Lynx in 2016. The former was Diana Taurasi's first title, the latter was Candace Parker's first.
The New York Liberty are still in search of their first title in the W, while the Lynx look to return to glory after
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction
This is it. The Liberty and Lynx have had a knockdown, drag-out series. We've already seen a historic Game 1 comeback for the underdogs, a statement Game 2 from the favorites, a historic shot from Sabrina Ionescu in Game 3, and an all-around, balanced, gutsy effort for the Lynx to force a Game 5.
In Game 5, I like Breanna Stewart to, again, record a double-double. And I also am sticking with the Liberty — who I officially picked to win in 5 on the Action App pre-series. We'll get more into why as this progresses.
My Game 5 Pick: Breanna Stewart Double-Double/Liberty to Win (+164 on FanDuel)
Lynx vs. Liberty Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 157 -110 / -110 | +220 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -114 | 157 -110 / -110 | -270 |
- Liberty vs. Lynx Spread: Liberty -5.5, Lynx +5.5
- Liberty vs. Lynx Over/Under: 157 points
- Liberty Moneyline: Liberty -270, Lynx +220
Minnesota Lynx: Can The Big 3 Finish The Job?
The tale of two halves theory prevailed once again this series. We got a first half over, and a second half under.
The Lynx have been much better in first quarters since the series left Brooklyn, but of course, we're heading back to NYC for Game 5, where the Liberty blitzed Minnesota in back-to-back firsts. The Lynx trailed 32-19 after one in the first and 31-21 after the first in Game 2.
The teams have, respectively, combined for 51, 52, 46 and 46 — their first quarter over/under has been listed at around 40 for every game and the total has sailed way over four straight times.
Here are how the Lynx have played to their totals by half.
Game 1 — First Half (Under), Second Half (Over)
Game 2 — First Half (Over), Second Half (Under)
Game 3 — First Half (Over), Second Half (Under)
Game 4 — First Half (Over), Second Half (Under)
And for the full game totals, they went over in Game 1, under in games 2 and 3 and back over in Game 4.
Player prop wise, Napheesa Collier is always one to watch. Last game, Collier was held under in points, finishing with 14 — way short of her scoring prop, which was in the low 20s depending on when you checked. Rebounds-wise, she got nine, she had 10, and one was taken away right before the contest concluded — painful for those of us who may have parlayed Collier and Stewart double-doubles at +250.
You'll never guess who went over again?
That's right — Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride. Williams had 15. She's gone over in three of four this series, getting exactly 15 in two of those efforts (23 in Game 1) and is plus money to get 15 again at multiple books. Her over/under is 13.5. She is also plus money to get over 6.5 assists, which she has also gone over in three straight.
McBride finished with 19 points for the second straight time. She also had 22 in Game 1, and her only under was an eight-point flop in Game 2, the only blowout of the series. McBride has cleared over 2.5 threes in all three games she's gotten her over, and for Game 5, she is at 14.5 points — up from where it had been earlier this series, hovering between 12.5 and 13.5.
New York Liberty: Starts & Ends With Breanna Stewart
The Liberty are listed at 81.5 points for their total, a total they've only broken in Game 1, and while they did it in regulation, they haven't gone over 80 points since.
In fact, the Liberty have scored exactly 80 in three straight games. They've generally been in that 80.5 / 81.5 ish range across the board. The Liberty have also seen a few big swings from quarter to quarter.
Here is their points distribution from quarter to quarter in each of the first four games this series:
Game 1: 32, 12, 24, 16 (9)
Game 2: 31, 18, 12, 19
Game 3: 18, 17, 26, 19
Game 4: 23, 22, 18, 17
Player-prop wise, it starts with Stewie. Stewart has two Finals MVPs and a big performance (and a win) could give her a third, which would make her the second player in W history to win at least three Finals MVP Awards, Cynthia Cooper being the other. Stewart is listed at 20.5 points, which she's gone over twice this series. Her PRA sits at 33.5, which she has also cleared twice. And she's -105 on DraftKings to get a double-double (without the result), which she has gotten in two straight.
Sabrina Ionescu's points prop is at 17.5, a number she only cleared in Game 1, the same goes for her assists, which sits at 5.5. Her PRA is 27.5, though she got to 27 in Game 1, this has seen four straight unders. And her points + assists prop is also at 22.5 — she's 0-for-4 to the over in that as well, though Game 1 saw 22 exact. Jonquel Jones, who exploited the favorable center battle again in Game 4, is back at 14.5 points, which she has cleared twice and both misses were within two points of covering. She's at 22.5 points and rebounds, having gone over this in every game except Game 3.
Lynx vs. Liberty: Who's Hoisting The Trophy?
I'm sticking with the Liberty to win and I'm riding the Stewart double-double streak. She got the boards last time out even with foul trouble. Two straight double doubles for Stewie in this series, and in general, she has three in five games.
Even in last year's final, she finished with three straight double doubles. And if she stays out of foul trouble, she could get this easily.
Pick: Breanna Stewart Double-Double/Liberty to Win (+164 on FanDuel)
How to Watch Game 5 of the WNBA Finals
| Lynx vs. Liberty | Sunday, October 20 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Liberty vs. Lynx is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Sunday.
With the series tied at 2-2, it all comes down to a decisive Game 5 in the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV, and other streaming platforms as the Lynx seek their first WNBA Championship since 2017 while the Liberty hope for their first one in franchise history.
