Mystics vs. Liberty Odds
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 161.5 -110/ -110 | +270 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 161.5 -110/ -110 | -355 |
The Washington Mystics face the New York Liberty on ABC Sunday in a showdown between two of the preeminent franchises in the WNBA.
The two teams faced each other in their season opener, with the Mystics running rampant on the Liberty, winning by a final score of 80-64. However, it would be surprising to see as lopsided a game on Sunday–especially in favor of the Mystics. The Liberty have only lost two games since that opener and are starting to look like the near superteam many folks imagined in the offseason.
The Mystics actually dropped four of their next eight after that opener, but they have now won three in a row and are finally looking to stabilize what had been a somewhat sketchy run in the season.
On Sunday, the spread looks pretty accurate, but there are a few player props that look like valuable options.
Washington Mystics
Despite some of their on-and-off struggles, the Mystics have been the best defensive team in the WNBA to date. They allow just 72.5 points per game, nearly four points fewer than the next closest team in the W.
They do this by a variety of methods. They hold opponents to the lowest field goal percentage from both 2-point and 3-point range; they get the fourth-most steals of any team; they force the most turnovers of any team; and finally, and, most importantly for this preview, they have the third-best Defensive Rebounding Rate (and it's basically a tie among those top-three teams).
With a frontcourt of Elena Delle Donne and Shakira Austin alongside strong rebounding guards like Brittney Sykes and Natasha Cloud, the Mystics are consistently one of the best teams on the glass.
Keep that in mind when we head to the Liberty team section, but if you're looking to target a Mystics-centric bet, I'm going to be looking to the first half. The Mystics are a different team in the first half, sporting a +19.0 Net Rating in the first 20 minutes, a figure that trails only the Las Vegas Aces this season. The own a 104.0 Offensive Rating that ranks third in the league, and that number plummets to 86.4 in the second half.
New York Liberty
While the Mystics own the third-best Offensive Rating in the first half, the Liberty own the best. As such, I'll be looking at a first-half over in this game. Also, if you are watching the game, it may well give bettors a chance for a live under at half, as the discrepancy between both teams in the first half versus second half has been massive this season.
We discussed the Mystics' rebounding prowess above, so it is perhaps unsurprising that there is one player on the Liberty whose rebounds I am going to be looking toward the under to bet. Sabrina Ionescu's rebounding prop is set at 6.5 as of writing, despite the fact that she hasn't cleared that number in a month and has a tough rebounding matchup.
Also, her teammate Jonquel Jones is coming on more and more on the glass. Jones had her first double-double of the season two games ago, and she followed that up with another eight rebounds her last time out. Her minutes are working their way up, and she has reached at least six rebounds in each of her last six games. In four of those games she has handily cleared the 6.5 number that books have set for Sunday.
Mystics-Liberty Pick
The spread for this game looks pretty well set. I think the Mystics matchup with the Liberty in a couple of ways that give them issues, so if pressed, I would lean towards taking the points, but bettors shouldn't have to press for that angle since there are several other preferable bets.
The first-half over looks to be a strong angle, with both teams coming out of the gates hot this season before seeing their offenses stall out a bit in the second halves of games.
The Liberty also have a pair of rebounding props that should provide value for bettors, with Sabrina Ionescu's line being set too high, while Jonquel Jones's rebounding prop has been set too low.
Pick: 1H Over 81.5 |
Pick: Jonquel Jones Over 6.5 Rebounds |
Pick: Sabrina Ionescu Under 6.5 Rebounds |
