According to Courtney Vandersloot, the Liberty remain scarred from their 2023 WNBA Finals loss to the Aces. New York will have an opportunity to do some healing when the two teams meet in the semifinals of this year's playoffs.
Since the start of the season, New York has shown a commitment to get back to the finals. The Liberty locked up homecourt throughout the playoffs and will host Las Vegas as four-point favorites in Game 1, with a total of 163.5 points.
If you're a Liberty fan, this preview is dedicated to you, as we'll highlight the two best bets to make ahead of the New York Liberty's series opener against the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday, September 29.
New York Liberty Odds vs. Aces
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 163.5 -106 / -114 | +152 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 163.5 -106 / -114 | -188 |
- Liberty vs. Aces spread: Liberty -4
- Liberty vs. Aces over/under: 163.5 points
- Liberty vs. Aces moneyline: Aces +152, Liberty -188
Why The New York Liberty Can Cover In Game 1
Las Vegas fans will do their best to try and minimize New York's 3-0 sweep in the 2024 regular season series. After all, Aces point guard Chelsea Gray missed the first game while still recovering from a foot injury.
Then, in the third meeting, the Aces' were also without their best player, A'ja Wilson.
However, New York has by far been the better of the two teams throughout the season, posting a league-best Net Rating of +11.7 points. The most significant improvement we've seen from New York has been its perimeter defense.
Opponents are shooting 32.4% from beyond the arc this season compared to 34.1% in 2023.
To get an idea of how important guarding the perimeter is, New York has a better Defensive Rating in 2o24 (95.3 vs. 99.4) despite allowing a slightly higher opponent field goal percentage (42.5% vs. 42.4%).
While New York didn't make any big-name additions to its roster during the offseason, the acquisition of Leonie Fiebich's draft rights in a four-team trade looks like an absolute steal.
Los Angeles originally drafted Fiebich 22nd in 2020, but she didn't make her debut until this season. At 6-foot-4, Fiebich is a versatile forward with enough length to be a deterrent on the perimeter.
Despite being a rookie, she already has plenty of experience playing abroad in Spain and with the German national team.
In three appearances that included one start against the Aces, she averaged nine points and four rebounds in 26.4 minutes while posting a Defensive Rating of 85.6 when on the floor.
Thus, Liberty head coach Sandy Brondello certainly isn't treating Fiebich like she's just some second-round rookie.
Brondello made a change to insert Fiebich into the starting lineup to give New York an extra ball-handler by moving Vandersloot to the second unit.
Now, it's up to Las Vegas to make the adjustments.
Aces vs. Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction For The Liberty
New York is on a mission to put things right after last year's disappointing finish. Brondello doesn't even feel the team needs to go back and watch the tape.
"No, I don't need to go back to it," Brondello told reporters. "I know. I remember it. We remember it. That's the motivation. That's the past; we can't control it. But what we can do is control the present."
New York has been the better of the two teams the entire season and Fiebich could emerge as a real wild card.
If you like the Liberty in this matchup, I recommend just picking it to advance to the finals at -158. That's a much better price than backing New York at -180 for on the moneyline for Game 1.
Lastly, New York doesn't get enough credit for how good of a rebounding team it is. Wilson is a heavy favorite (-210) to lead the series in rebounding despite getting outrebounded 25-20 by Jonquel Jones in the two games she played in.
If New York can do enough of a job collectively on the glass, Jones is well worth a look at +430.
Pick: Liberty to Win Series (-158) | Jonquel Jones to Lead Series in Rebounds (+430)
