This is supposed to be the year the New York Liberty finally capture their first WNBA title, and their performance in Game 1 of the semifinals against the Las Vegas Aces showed why.
The Liberty never trailed and ultimately pulled away for a comfortable 87-77 win. It was their fourth win in four tries against the Aces this season and the victory showed not only the team's depth, but its star power.
The scoring, defense and rebounding were all present and given that the Liberty were the best team all season, there's little reason to think a let down or slump is on the way. But there's a reason they play the games and, further, a reason why the line for this one is incredibly close.
But the first game had a 10-point margin, so the Liberty have shown they don't have to win close. That leads me to my Aces vs. Liberty prediction.
New York Liberty Game 2 Odds vs. Aces
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 164 -110 / -110 | +145 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 164 -110 / -110 | -175 |
- Liberty vs. Aces spread: Liberty -3.5
- Liberty vs. Aces over/under: 164 points
- Liberty vs. Aces moneyline: Aces +146, Liberty -180
Why the New York Liberty Can Cover in Game 2
The Liberty entered the postseason as the No. 1 seed and the favorite to win it all, and with good reason. They had the league's top offensive efficiency rating and a lineup with four players averaging double figures, led by Breanna Stewart.
The team's depth and size overwhelmed most opponents, and that seemed to be the case against the Aces. While they were making 50% of their shots, the Liberty out-rebounded the Aces by nine and held their opponent to just 43.3% from the field and a woeful 7-of-25 from 3. Stewart was incredible scoring 34 points, but Sabrina Ionescu added 21 and Jonquel Jones chipped in 13.
Six other Liberty players found the bottom of the net, with everyone who played — nine players in total — contributing at least two points. That's not something many teams can say, and to do it in a semifinals game is all the more impressive.
Now, the Liberty probably can't expect that kind of scoring from Stewart, but any extra attention on her will open things up for the rest of the team's weapons. And when things get going, the home crowd is a force.
“We came out, it’s Game 1, we wanted to play with a sense of urgency and protect our home court,” Liberty coach Sandy Brondello told reporters after the game.
Game 2 will feature a different kind of energy, with it being on a weeknight and coming with a series lead. But the Liberty know what's at stake and are especially understanding of how tough their opponent is, especially since it's who defeated them in last year's Finals.
So while some teams may worry about a bit of a let down or a drop in intensity when compared to a newly desperate opponent, the Liberty should have no such concerns.
And unlike their opponent, who is stellar offensively, but lacks a bit on the defensive end, all season the Liberty have proven to be effective on both ends of the court. That was evident in Game 1 and while shooting can come and go — as long as effort is there — so too will be defense.
Aces vs. Liberty Betting Pick & Prediction
The tricky part about the Liberty is that with so many scoring options, you can feel confident they will put up points, but not be entirely sure of who is going to be most responsible. Stewart went off in Game 1 and is the most likely candidate to lead the team, but there are other contenders and their respective totals can have a substantial range.
Ignoring points, Jones has amassed no fewer than eight rebounds in any of the four games she's played against the Aces this year. She pulled down 12 in Game 1 to lead all players and is a good bet to be among the game's leading rebounds.
Picks: Liberty -3.5 | Jonquel Jones to Record 8+ Rebounds (-310)
How to Watch Liberty vs. Aces Game 2
| Aces vs. Liberty | Tuesday, October 1 |
| Start Time: | 7:39 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN 2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
