The New York Liberty were the better team in Brooklyn, but the Minnesota Lynx escaped with a Game 1 win. And while we're tied at one win each heading into Game 3, we'll be in Minnesota, where the Lynx have a shot at closing at home.
Or… or… the Liberty could take back homecourt by stealing a game back while on the road.
New York Liberty Game 3 Odds vs. Minnesota Lynx
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | -160 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | +135 |
- Liberty vs. Lynx Spread: Liberty -3.5
- Liberty vs. Lynx Over/Under: 160.5 points
- Liberty Moneyline: Liberty -160
Why The New York Liberty Can Cover In Game 3
The Liberty led for most of Game 1 and led at the end of each of the first three quarters before blowing it in the fourth quarter, later completing the collapse in overtime. We expected Game 2 to be a bounce back performance where the better team has a more complete performance, and generally speaking, they did that.
They won, they covered, they led wire-to-wire, and their defense tightened up in the second half, only allowing 27 points on 39 percent shooting. The Lynx shot 1-for-9 from three in the final two quarters, a big drop off from a first half where they hit 5-of-11 from three and shot 50/46/100 as a team.
The Liberty only saw 66 points from the Lynx, the fewest they've allowed since Game 4 against the Las Vegas Aces, and frankly, it was one of their best defensive performances of the entire playoffs. We saw total team unders on both sides in Game 2, a flip from Game 1.
In terms of props, the more interesting ones will be surrounding Jonquel Jones. She is listed plus money to go over 14.5 points and after going way over in Game 1 with 24, she ended last game with 14. Still, she's a walking match up problem for the Lynx because of her inside presence and rebounding ability, where she has had 19 boards. Also, her shooting. At her size, she can stretch the floor, and although she's just 1-for-4 from deep in the Finals, she's 42 percent from three in the post-season on 2.4 attempts per contest. That's good for exactly one make per game, and everything counts.
Breanna Stewart, who was my pick to win Finals MVP, is at 21.5 points, of which she's 0-for-2 at getting over, though last game, you could've gotten her at 20.5 and she cleared with 21. Stewie is 33 percent from the field (13-for-39) but a respectable 4-for-11 (36.3 percent) from three and 9-of-12 (75 percent) on free throws. Her impact has been also felt on the boards, where she's gotten nine and eight, and last game, she had seven steals in what was arguably the best individual defensive performance of the playoffs so far.
Sabrina Ionescu disappeared for stretches last game after an 8-for-26 Game 1 but had an efficient 5-for-9 and went 2-for-5 from three to accumulate 15 points. Shes' juiced to about -140 to go over 2.5 made threes, but she did go 3-for-9 from deep in Game 1. All will be popular PRA looks.
Also of note is Betnijah Laney-Hamilton following a huge 20-point performance with four made threes, her first 20-point game since July 6. She is plus money to go over 1.5 threes, understandable given that she's only done it twice all playoffs and had been attempting just 3.1 per game (and making 18 percent) until the breakout.
Liberty vs. Lynx: First Quarter Another Focal Point
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Liberty obliterated this number twice this series, so it's hard not to back it. In Game 1, it was 32, and in Game 2, it was 31. They start fast against the Lynx, and even a much slower start could land them above this number. Both teams have been great early, and the game tends to get slightly muddied, by comparison, in the second half.
My Pick: Liberty total team Over 20.5 1Q points (-130 on FanDuel)
