Sabrina Ionescu hit the shot heard around the basketball world to move the New York Liberty within one win of their first WNBA title. With 16 seconds left in the fourth quarter and both teams knotted at 77 points, the Liberty called a timeout and head coach Sandy Brondello told Ionescu that she would take the last shot.
A take foul by Minnesota's Kayla McBride at the 10-second mark meant the Liberty would have to reset. After a successful inbound, Ionescu let the clock dwindle to one second before launching a 28-foot 3-pointer.
Ionescu's game-winner somewhat overshadowed Breanna Stewart's 30-point performance that led all scorers. To win Game 4, New York will need another exceptional effort from both players against a Lynx team desperate to bounce back after blowing an early 15-point lead.
New York Liberty Game 4 Odds vs. Minnesota Lynx
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 158.5 -110 / -110 | +125 |
- Liberty vs. Lynx Spread: Liberty -2.5
- Liberty vs. Lynx Over/Under: 158.5 points
- Liberty Moneyline: Liberty -150
Why The New York Liberty Can Cover In Game 4
Game 3 was somewhat bizarre because the Lynx dominated many of the key categories and still couldn't come away with a victory. We've seen New York dominate Minnesota on the glass throughout this series, which has led to a massive advantage in second-chance opportunities.
Through the first two games, New York outrebounded Minnesota 79-58 and averaged 10 more shot attempts (75.5 to 65.5) per game.
However, the Liberty had just one more rebound than the Lynx (33-32) in Game 3, and Minnesota used an 18-12 turnover advantage to put up 75 shots compared New York's 61.
Minnesota's strength this season has often been its efficiency. It shot 44.8% from the floor, including a league-best 38% from beyond the arc.
Thus, one might think the Lynx would be practically indomitable if they got more shot attempts up.
Moreover, both teams shot over 40% from the perimeter and were tied in 3-point field goals (nine) until Ionescu sank the game-winner. They also finished the game tied with the same number of points in the paint (28).
New York came out on top in a game it really had no business winning. If the Liberty can win a game with a style that almost completely contradicts their ethos, then you have to like their chances should they succeed in reasserting dominance on the glass in Game 4.
Liberty vs. Lynx Betting Pick & Prediction
I've often rejected the notion that there's a considerable gap between these teams. Minnesota certainly didn't play like a 3.5-point home underdog in Game 3, yet we have a similar point spread in Game 4 — when we know the Lynx will be desperate to send the series back to New York.
As a result, if you're looking to back the Liberty in this game, I recommend targeting Stewart and Ionescu player props.
New York doesn't win Game 3 without Stewart, who carried the Liberty while her teammates struggled to find their shot. The perimeter shot is a big part of New York's identity, as the Liberty led the league with 10.1 3-pointers per game.
While Stewart isn't particularly known for her 3-point shooting, she's hit two 3-pointers in each game this series and in four of her past five contests.
Moreover, she's averaging 6.3 3-point attempts during that span, two more per game than she usually puts up. Lastly, she's hit at least two 3-pointers in seven of her past 10 meetings against Minnesota.
If we can expect Stewart to be more aggressive in these high-leverage games, then she is worth a look to go over her prop of 1.5 mades 3s.
As for Ionescu, there's a significant disparity in her scoring during these playoffs at home (22.0, 47.1 FG%) vs. on the road (13.0, 39.4 FG%). She's also been somewhat tentative, attempting 11 shots on the road vs. 17 at home.
While her scoring is down on the road, she's been more consistent in other aspects of her game, such as dishing out assists and rebounding.
Based on her splits during the playoffs, she's averaging 10 rebounds + assists, whether playing at home or on the road. She's also exceeded 9.5 rebounds and assists in seven of her past eight away games and seven of her previous 10 meetings against Minnesota.
Look for Ionescu to fill out the box score in what should be a challenging Game 4 for New York.
My Pick: Breanna Stewart Over 1.5 3s Made (+102 at FanDuel) | Sabrina Ionescu Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120 at Bet365)
How to Watch Game 4 of the WNBA Finals
| Liberty vs. Lynx | Friday, October 18 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Lynx vs. Liberty is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Friday.
After a thrilling end to Game 3, the Liberty are up 2-1 in the series. Game 4 of the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx is on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV, and other streaming platforms as the Lynx see if they can save their season and push for a decisive Game 5.
