For most of this season, the New York Liberty were expected to finally win their first WNBA championship. However, their coronation may have to wait. The Minnesota Lynx staved off elimination and sent this WNBA Finals series to a fifth and deciding game with a thrilling victory this past Friday.
The game – a Finals game – was decided on a pair of Bridget Carlton free throws with two seconds left, resulting in a narrow win for Minnesota to force this winner-take-all matchup. The oddsmakers see the Liberty as 5.5-point favorites in Game 5, with the total set at over/under 157.5 total points. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Let's get to my Liberty Game 5 preview and my WNBA Finals picks for the series finale on Sunday, October 20.
New York Liberty Game 5 Odds vs. Minnesota Lynx
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | +200 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | -250 |
- Liberty vs. Lynx Spread: Liberty -5.5
- Liberty vs. Lynx Over/Under: 157.5 points
- Liberty Moneyline: Liberty -250
Why The New York Liberty Can Cover In Game 5
In the aftermath of Game 4, Liberty coach Sandy Brondello had thoughts on the officiating.
“We got no calls today,” she said. “So, do I need to talk about it in a press conference? Because they were getting ticky tacks (fouls) and we went down there and got hit and get nothing.”
The coach went into the foul disparity, which led to the Lynx shooting 20 free throws compared to nine for the Liberty.
“All we want is fair. So if we’re getting hit, that’s a foul,” Brondello continued. “I’m one of the nicest bloody coaches in this league, but this pisses me off. Just be fair. If they’re getting hit it’s a bloody foul. But in the end, it was a close game. There's things we could have done a bit better, we all could have done a bit better.”
The coach concluded by saying they now have to go back to New York and win. The stage is set for the Liberty to clinch the title in front of their home fans, which would be a great way to cap off an unbelievable season and championship series.
Three of the four games played so far this series have been decided by one bucket, with the other being a Game 2 blowout by the Liberty. That was the last time these teams played in the Big Apple, and it was a reminder of how much better New York can be when they are firing on all cylinders.
The expectation is they will be at their best in a deciding game at home.
That means getting strong contributions from their star-studded starting lineup that includes Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Jonquel Jones. Each has had big games and moments this series, but their offensive production in Game 4 was certainly below average.
Laney-Hamilton, Jones and rookie Leonie Fiebich picked up the scoring slack in the loss, with them scoring 10, 21 and 19 points, respectively. The trio made a combined 18-of-29 shots while snagging 14 rebounds and dishing out nine assists, giving the team a chance while the rest of the lineup fell below their season and playoff scoring averages. It was the kind of effort championship teams get from role players in big games. It may not be repeatable, but it may not need to be.
To expect Ionescu (10 points) and Stewart (11 points), specifically, to shoot a combined 10-of-36 at home with a title on the line would probably be unwise.
Ionescu has seen her scoring average dip in each successive game this series, but averaged 18.2 points per game in the regular season and is at 18.1 in the postseason.
Meanwhile, Stewart has scored fewer than 15 points one other time this postseason, and she responded with a 34-point effort the next game. She is averaging 20 points per game in the playoffs after scoring 20.4 per game in the regular season.
So even without their normal scoring punch, the Liberty had a chance to win at the end.
It would be easy for some to point to the free throw line and say a more even (or Liberty-slanted) tally would be the difference in the game, and they could be right.
We’ll see Sunday if Brondello’s comments helped in any way, but for the Liberty their focus is likely more on trimming their turnovers after coughing the ball up 15 times in Game 4, and having done so an average of 14.25 times per game this series, which is more than their postseason average and greater than what they averaged in the regular season too.
Continuing to dominate the glass will help the cause; even in Friday’s loss the Liberty out-rebounded the Lynx by nine, and have used their advantage on the boards to generate more shots than their opponent, who has struggled mightily in the rebounding department this season.
Lynx vs. Liberty: Bet on Breanna Stewart
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Liberty come home with a chance to make franchise history, and it's tough to see them missing out on the opportunity. The spread for this matchup (+5.5) is the largest spread of this series since Game 1, which did not go New York's way.
I expect this one to be different, in large part, due to a bounce back game from Stewart. She leads the way, and I expect her to lead her team to their first WNBA title.
Pick: Breanna Stewart to Score 20+ Points (-135)
How to Watch Game 5 of the WNBA Finals
| Lynx vs. Liberty | Sunday, October 20 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Liberty vs. Lynx is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Sunday.
With the series tied at 2-2, it all comes down to a decisive Game 5 in the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV, and other streaming platforms as the Lynx seek their first WNBA Championship since 2017 while the Liberty hope for their first one in franchise history.
