The Las Vegas Aces lost just two games over the course of the 2022 postseason and just one last year, so facing elimination Friday as they return home to face the top-seeded New York Liberty is unfamiliar. The Liberty took the first two games of the semifinals matchup at home, with the favorites to win it all looking every bit the dominant team they were in the regular season.
Fortunately for the Aces they still have a chance, and even though they lost, Game 2 saw them look more like themselves. Are they ready to defend their home court and avoid the sweep? Let's break it down in our Aces vs. Liberty prediction.
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Prediction
The Aces' backs are against the wall, and at home they will turn to their stars to stave off elimination. One of them, Kelsey Plum, is coming off a six-point outing in Game 2. It was her sixth game all season with fewer than 10 points, and after the other five she responded with high-scoring performances at an average of 22.4 points per game.
Liberty vs. Aces Pick: Kelsey Plum to Score 20+ Points (+164)
Liberty vs. Aces Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 166 -108o / -112u | +124 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 166 -108o / -112u | -148 |
- Aces vs. Liberty spread: Aces -3, Liberty +3
- Aces vs. Liberty over/under: 166 points
- Aces vs. Liberty moneyline: Aces -148, Liberty +124
New York Liberty: Still the Best Team in Basketball
The Liberty fell to the Aces in last year's championship series in four games, and now find themselves one victory away from sweeping them out of the playoffs and ending their championship run.
It may not be all that surprising given how dominant the Liberty were in the regular season, including a perfect 3-0 record against the Aces. But the playoffs are supposed to be different, and yet New York has just continued to play its brand of basketball.
The Liberty are shooting 50% from the field in this series, getting contributions not just from the stars but from all over the roster. Breanna Stewart, the team's leading scorer, scorched the nets for 34 points in Game 1 but settled for just 15 points in Game 2.
That wasn't an issue, as Sabrina Ionescu led the way with 24 after collecting 21 in the series opener. Jonquel Jones has been her typical solid self, scoring 27 points and pulling in 20 rebounds so far this series.
Others have stepped up at different times, with Courtney Vandersloot scoring 12 in Game 2 and all nine players who played scoring at least two points in Game 1, highlighting the depth and balance the Liberty are known for.
A prolific 3-point shooting team all season, the Liberty made just 8-of-19 attempts in Game 1 but shot 9-of-29 from deep in Game 2. They out-rebounded the Aces in both games and kept turnovers to around their season average of about 13 per game.
Las Vegas Aces: Backs Against the Wall
It is said a series doesn't truly begin until a team wins on the road, which is something the Aces are likely holding onto as this one shifts to Sin City. Facing elimination for the first time since the 2021 playoffs (when they lost in the semifinals), the back-to-back defending champs are left searching for answers against what has been the W's best team.
After struggling offensively in Game 1, the Aces did look more like themselves in Game 2. League MVP A'ja Wilson scored 24 points and pulled down seven rebounds, and for the series she's averaging 22.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and one block per game. The numbers are down from her regular-season averages, which were record-setting, thus creating a need for others to step up.
Kelsey Plum did that in Game 1 when she scored 24 points, but she struggled in Game 2 and finished with just six points. The team's second-leading scorer all season has been consistently good, but has struggled in two of the team's four playoff games this year.
Jackie Young (17), Chelsie Gray (14), Alysha Clark (13) and Tiffany Hayes (10) all provided support in the second game of this series and have proven capable of contributing, but the consistency hasn't been there so far as that group combined for 32 points in Game 1.
That's not to say things can't turn around. The Aces led the league in scoring during the regular season and could have the best player on the floor at any time in the series.
Betting Pick & Prediction: Plum The Focal Point
Through two games this series and the other three in the regular season, the Aces have given little indication they are capable of beating the Liberty. Have they played their best basketball in this series? No. But the Liberty defense has something to do with that.
While Wilson is certain to get hers, Plum is coming off her second-worst game of the playoffs. After scoring just two points in Game 1 against Seattle, she rebounded to put up 29 in Game 2. And after averaging 17.8 points per game in the regular season, a bounce-back from a six-point effort against the Liberty is in store.
Aces vs. Liberty Pick: Kelsey Plum to Score 20+ Points (+164)
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Aces vs. Liberty | Friday, October 4 |
| Start Time: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, Nevada |
Liberty vs. Aces is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET live from Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nevada on Friday.
This marquee WNBA matchup between the defending champion Aces and their rivals, the New York Liberty, is on ESPN2 and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
