We are headed back to Minnesota in what is now a best of three series, tied at 1-1. The Liberty have remained dominant in the series, letting a few leads slide and ultimately losing a game due to a late fourth quarter collapse.
However, I am backing the Liberty in Game 3, and the market has agreed. The Liberty opened as 1 point underdog and now sit as 3.5 point favorites! That is a crazy amount of line movement in a finals match, and speaks to the loud action coming in on New York.
There is one Minnesota prop I like, but I am looking for ways to back the Liberty here in Game 3. With all of these props, I think reduce the bet size now at game 3 of the series. The books have a lot of information on what the play style will look like, which makes the market flatter and harder to obtain value.
However, finding these spots at no vig or plus money offer good looks. Choose 1-2 that you agree with a split a unit between them.
So I won't put this off any longer as I provide some Liberty vs. Lynx Game 3 player props and picks I suggest grabbing right away.
Carleton is a key cog in the Lynx great 3-point shooting and floor spacing, and she is also integral to the switchable and versatile defense. Despite Carleton not preforming great on the road – the Lynx will need her and encourage her confidence and shooting in game 3.
Role players shoot better at home, and Carleton was noticeably passing up shots she can knock down. I expect that film study pointed out these opportunities, and she will look for the catch and shoot to help open up the Minnesota offense.
Pick: Bridget Carleton Over 8.5 Points (+100) — Caesars
This is the game Breanna Stewart puts in a staple performance and puts the Liberty in strong position to win the franchise first WNBA title. Stewart has spoken openly about feeling like her poor performances last year hurt the teams chance to get over the hump. Here she can quell those demons with a monster performance, and has the depth and talent around her to make it happen.
I expect an aggressive Stewart to be attacking the rim and pushing in transition. There is a line at -115 odds and 21.5 points, but I'll see the 1 point for the spot to play into absolutely no vig at +100.
Pick: Breanna Stewart Over 22.5 Points (+100) — Caesars
If there is going to be a game where Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart barely leave the floor, its game 3 of the finals tied 1-1 and on the road. I expect 36+ minutes from Sabrina and to play into a volume boosted stat production.
When a players minutes increase, they have periods on the floor looking to distribute and conserve energy. I expect in times of fatique, Sabrina stays on the court and looks to feed Jones/Stewart on the pick and roll, leading to some easy assist. At +120, this is a great bet considering the minutes she will play.
Pick: Sabrina Ionescu Over 5.5 Assist (+120) — FanDuel
