The Minnesota Lynx changed the dynamic of this year's WNBA Finals with a thrilling come-from-behind OT victory over the New York Liberty in Game 1, snatching home-court advantage. However, the Liberty responded to the loss with a dominant Game 2 performance, tying the series up while never trailing at any point in the process.
Both teams' stars have shown out over the first two games, and although the Liberty may have more stars, the Lynx have shown they have what it takes to not only keep up, but pull away. Now that the series has shifted to Minnesota, it will be up to the Liberty to win on the road, lest they see their first championship slip through their fingers once again.
Read more for my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions.
Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Prediction
While the Liberty played some of their best basketball in Game 2, the same could not be said for the Lynx. Turnovers limited their shot attempts, which in turn suppressed their scoring output. Expect better ball security as the series moves to Minnesota and Napheesa Collier to get back to her usual high-scoring self.
My Game 3 Pick: Napheesa Collier to Score 20+ points (-128 on FanDuel)
Liberty vs. Lynx Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 160.5 -108o / -112u | -164 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 160.5 -108o / -112u | +134 |
- Lynx vs. Liberty Spread: Liberty -3.5, Lynx +3.5
- Lynx vs. Liberty Over/Under: 160.5 points
- Lynx vs. Liberty Moneyline: Liberty -175, Lynx +145
New York Liberty: Eyes on the Prize
If the Liberty's confidence was shaken after collapsing down the stretch of Game 1, they sure didn't show it in Game 2. The 80-66 win saw the league's top seed at its best, making 47.5% of its shots, including 11-of-24 from 3. The Liberty also hammered the Lynx on the boards while forcing 20 turnovers.
Breanna Stewart led the way with 21 points to go along with nine rebounds, five assists and seven steals. The team's leading scorer during the regular season, she is also pacing the squad here in the playoffs. Stewart has made 13 of 39 shots so far this series, including 4-of-11 from 3-point range.
Stewart's scoring has been supported by the usual suspects, with Betnijah Laney-Hamilton contributing 20 points, while Sabrina Ionescu added 15 and Jonquel Jones tallied 14. It was a great improvement for Laney-Hamilton, who scored just five points in Game 1, whereas for Jones, who scored 24 in the initial game and Ionescu, who pitched in 19, the second game led to a slight dip.
Of course, the Liberty will gladly take what happened in the second game, especially on the defensive end, after allowing the Lynx to make more than half their shots in the opener.
Throughout both games, the Liberty maintained their rebounding advantage, which was to be expected after the Lynx proved to be one of the worst rebounding teams in the W and the Liberty the league's best. After two games, the Liberty have outrebounded the Lynx by a 78-59 margin while holding a 30-10 advantage on the offensive glass. Jones has been a big part of that, but Game 2 saw five different Liberty players corral at least four boards after six did so in Game 1.
Minnesota Lynx: Snagging Home Court
Although disappointed with the result of Game 2, the Lynx had to be pleased after leaving New York with a split — now wielding a home-court advantage.
For that to happen, they will need to win Game 3, which will require a better performance than they gave in Game 2. While in the first game, the Lynx had three players (Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams) all score at least 20 points, the second game saw no one score more than Collier's 16.
A 38-percent 3-point shooting team during the regular season, the Lynx are at 37 percent in the playoffs but sank just 6-of-20 (30 percent) in Game 2. This was after they made 9-of-22, or 41 percent, in the Game 1 win.
McBride leads the team with 13 attempts from deep this series, making six. Williams has collected 13 assists over two games to lead the team, while along with scoring, Collier also leads the team with seven steals. She also blocked six shots in Game 1 but did not swat away any in Game 2.
The Lynx turned the ball over 20 times in Game 2, which was well above both their season and playoff average and twice as many as they posted in Game 1. The team has ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of ball security this season, and they have consistently struggled on the glass.
Liberty vs. Lynx: Collier's the Difference Maker
Betting Pick & Prediction
Teams look to their stars in the championship series, and so far in this series, each team has seen theirs step up. One of them, Minnesota's Collier, saw a string of games of at least 20 points snapped in Game 2, where she scored 16.
Averaging 25.2 points throughout the playoffs and with excellent shooting percentage numbers, fewer turnovers will lead to more shot attempts, and more attempts will lead to more points. Jones to collect at least eight rebounds also seems like a good bet at -225, as she has averaged 8.9 per game in the playoffs and has 19 over the first two games of this series.
Lynx vs. Liberty Pick: Napheesa Collier to score 20+ Points (-128 on FanDuel)
How to Watch Lynx vs. Liberty Game 3
| Liberty vs. Lynx | Wednesday, October 16 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Lynx vs. Liberty is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Wednesday.
With the series tied at 1-1, Game 3 of the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx is on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV, and other streaming platforms as the two teams look to take see who can take a 2-1 series edge.
