For most of the first half of Game 3, it looked like the Minnesota Lynx (+2.5 for Game 4) were going to put themselves in a position to win a championship in Game 4. They were dominating the New York Liberty (currently -2.5 favorites) with a suffocating defense and looked ready to pull off another upset.
But similar to how the Lynx came back to win a thriller in Game 1, the Liberty responded and took control, outscoring the home team in every quarter but the first and eventually winning on Sabrina Ionescu's highlight-reel three with only seconds remaining.
The 80-77 win put New York 40 minutes away from the franchise's first championship while the Lynx are facing elimination for the first time this postseason.
Lets take a look a my Game 4 Liberty vs. Lynx predictions.
Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Prediction
What has been a great series could see its conclusion Friday in Minnesota, and the Liberty certainly seems poised to end things. They did not play a great game the other day and still had enough to win, and although the Lynx are formidable, this series is showing they are just outmatched by New York's depth and versatility.
My Pick: Liberty -2.5 (-112 on FanDuel)
Liberty vs. Lynx Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 158.5 -114o / -106u | -152 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 158.5 -114o / -106u | +124 |
- Liberty vs. Lynx Spread: Liberty -2.5, Lynx +2.5
- Liberty vs. Lynx Moneyline: Liberty -150, +124
- Liberty vs. Lynx Over/Under: 158.5 points
- Liberty vs. Lynx Series Odds: Liberty -800, Lynx +550
New York Liberty: Just Win Baby
In Game 1, the Liberty got out to a big lead before coughing it up late and losing. Game 3 was the opposite, with New York struggling out of the gate before settling in and eventually overtaking their opponent.
The box score from the win, as well as that of the series as a whole, gives the impression of a series that has been dominated by the postseason's No. 1 overall seed.
In the last game, the Liberty got 30 points from Brianna Stewart, while Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Leonie Fiebich all contributed 13. The Liberty shot 45.9 percent from the field and made 10-of-25 threes, good for 40 percent. They were a perfect 14-of-14 from the free throw line, outrebounded the Lynx by one and blocked nine shots.
And yet, it was hardly a perfect game for the Liberty.
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton scored just two points and Ionescu, despite her late-game heroics, finished well under her postseason and regular-season scoring averages. Meanwhile, Jones, who had snagged at least six rebounds in 10 straight games going back to the regular season, finished with just five.
Stewart helped pick up the slack on the glass with 11 rebounds of her own, and three other Liberty players (Laney-Hamilton, Fiebich and Ionescu) each had at least four. It was an abnormal performance on the boards for all but Ionescu, who
It all added up, of course, the Liberty likely aren't too concerned with how they got the win, only that they did. Stewart's 30 points and 11 boards paced the team in both categories, and she now leads the Liberty in both points and rebounds during the playoffs.
Ionescu is averaging 19 points per game, while Jones and Fiebich are at 14.7 and 10.7, respectively. Jones is also second on the team with 8.4 rebounds per game, and Ionescu is leading the Liberty, who play at a relatively slow pace, with five assists per game.
Minnesota Lynx: Limit The Turnovers
The Lynx are facing elimination at home and while they must be disappointed with how Game 3 finished, they have every reason to believe they can win not only Game 4 but the series itself.
Although they lost a big lead and the game just the other day, plenty went right. Napheesa Collier scored 22 points to go along with nine rebounds and five steals, Kayla McBride scored 19 points while making five threes and the Lynx, one of the league's worst rebounding teams, was outrebounded by just one while coming up with more offensive boards than the Liberty.
Further, the Lynx had just ten turnovers to the Liberty's 16 and assisted on 20 shots compared to New York's 18.
They also got solid contributions from Bridget Carlton (14 points, four rebounds) and Courtney Williams (12 points, eight assists, five assists, two steals) and of course, the game was a long three away from likely going into overtime.
Much of what the Lynx did, especially with regard to Collier and McBride, is repeatable. Collier has averaged nearly 25 points per game in the postseason, while McBride has made at least two threes in seven of 10 playoff games, including a total of 11 in three Finals matchups.
So, in other words, while the Lynx played well in Game 3, they do have room to play even better.
To stave off elimination and send the series back to New York, the Lynx will need more from Alanna Smith, whose two points in Game 3 were well below both her regular and postseason averages, and the defense that held the Liberty to just 35 points in the first half will need to hold up for longer.
Liberty vs. Lynx: A Champ To Be Crowned?
Betting Pick & Prediction
What has been a fantastic series could see its final game on Friday, with the Liberty looking to close out the Lynx and claim their first WNBA Championship. Two of the three games have been close, with Games 1 and 3 being decided by a combined five points.
Game 2 appears to be the outlier, with the Liberty winning by 14, but a look at the statistics shows a series that has been dominated by New York. Much went right for Minnesota in Game 3, especially when it came to rebounding and turnovers, and yet it wasn't enough. Should things revert more to their averages, the Liberty are set to claim the title.
Lynx vs. Liberty Pick: Liberty -2.5 (-112 on FanDuel)
How to Watch Game 4 of the WNBA Finals
| Liberty vs. Lynx | Friday, October 18 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Lynx vs. Liberty is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Friday.
After a thrilling end to Game 3 and the Liberty up 2-1 in the series, Game 4 of the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx is on ESPN and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV, and other streaming platforms as the Lynx see if they can save their season and push for a decisive Game 5.
