New York Liberty WNBA Title Odds: 2023 Preseason Betting Analysis & Preview

New York Liberty WNBA Title Odds

The New York Liberty ended the 2022 season with high hopes, but they start the '23 season with even higher expectations. They pulled off a huge trade and landed the top free agent in the same offseason. The Liberty enter the 2023 WNBA season with the second-shortest title odds at +125, according to FanDuel.

Here’s a look at their notable moves over the offseason and analysis on how to approach betting the Liberty before the WNBA season tips off.

Notable Offseason Transactions

Additions: Jonquel Jones, Kayla Thornton, Breanna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot, Epiphanny Prince.

Departures: Rebecca Allen, Natasha Howard, Michaela Onyenwere.

Betting Analysis

We've arrived. While there are innumerable fun storylines, teams and players across the W, the dueling super teams in New York and Las Vegas are undeniably the top story — and with good reason.

The Liberty have put together one of the most talented rosters in league history, arguably since the 2016 Los Angeles Sparks, if not those turn-of-the-century Houston Comets teams. Of course, the question becomes whether that talent on paper can translate to the court. And even if it does, what will happen come October when they may well face a roster nearly as talented and with far more history together?

To start the season, the biggest thing I'll be watching during Liberty games is the backcourt. The frontcourt has a pair of MVPs, but to a certain degree, we know what we're getting from Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. Both have played on incredibly talented teams, both are in their relative primes and we've seen both at or around their ceilings.

In Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot, it's a backcourt on opposite ends of the career spectrum. Ionescu thrived once she was moved more off-ball when Crystal Dangerfield moved into the starting lineup last season — that will be her role again for this year's squad, as Vandersloot will be the point guard deluxe.

Ionescu has apparently been honing her game for this exact role all offseason, and there's a chance she has an absolutely monster campaign — think something like 20/7/5 on incredibly efficient shooting splits. Vandersloot is the perfect floor general to have in big moments, as she has proven herself clutch with either a big shot, pass or even defensive stand. She is very underrated on that side of the ball even at her age.

What's truly unfair about this Liberty team, however, is their depth. Maybe the quietest part of this offseason was the Liberty getting Kayla Thornton "tossed in" as part of the Jonquel Jones trade. Thornton is not a toss-in — she was the Wings' second-best player by win shares last season, and that's is no anomaly. She has shown a consistent ability to be an incredibly impactful player throughout her career on low usage.

On a superteam like this, you literally couldn't have a better player. I almost wonder if she will get more time with the starters, while Betnijah Laney — the fact that I've gone 80% of the way through the preview without mentioning her name is truly amazing — will get to bring her shot-creating to the bench unit for more of a chance to cook there.

Flanking Thornton on the depth wings are Marine Johannes and Han Xu — arguably the most popular players on the Liberty. They are two of the most fun players to watch in the W, and they are also hyper efficient and strong offensive players.

This is a slightly better roster top to bottom than the Aces, but Las Vegas has the continuity advantage. That being said, if I were to make a preseason title bet with the odds as is, the Liberty at +150 (which is available at some books) would be my play.

But what I would instead recommend is to wait for the market to overreact to a slow start as the team is getting to know each other — Jones is starting the season injured as well — and pounce once the odds drop a bit. There's almost no room for them to have shorter odds (barring catastrophic injuries to the Aces), so waiting this number out shouldn't hurt.