You can never be too sure what you'll get from this Atlanta Dream team on a given day, as they will host the Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday in a game that tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET, as I preview my Mercury vs Dream prediction.
After losing eight straight games, Atlanta improved to 9-17 with back-to-back wins against two quality teams, Connecticut and Seattle.
It was the Dream's second win over Connecticut this season, and it had an earlier victory over the reigning champions, Las Vegas Aces.
Note that Atlanta did start the season with a 4-2 mark. However, multiple injuries to key players led to a downward spiral.
While Atlanta might have the scent of a live underdog when it hosts Phoenix, I'll share why a Dream player prop might be an even better option for bettors.
Mercury vs. Dream Prediction
The Mercury will visit the Dream on Wednesday in what could be a trap game. Phoenix has outperformed the betting market despite having some speculative advanced metrics.
Instead of pursuing a side or total in this matchup, we've set our sights on a contrarian player prop that involves Atlanta's Jordin Canada.
Pick: Jordin Canada under 11.5 points (-120)
Mercury vs. Dream Odds
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -108 | 165.5 -112o / -108u | -130 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -112 | 165.5 -112o / -108u | +106 |
My Mercury vs Dream Preview
Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
Phoenix narrowly won the first meeting against the Dream 88-85 after blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. You could argue that this Mercury team should probably be even better than its 15-13 record.
The addition of Kahleah Copper gave Phoenix a 20-point scorer, which it didn't have last season.
While the offense has primarily thrived, ranking third in efficiency with 103.3 points per 100 possessions, it's been on the defensive end of the court where the Mercury tend to struggle.
Phoenix ranks ninth in defensive efficiency (104.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), and it's at the bottom in 3-point field goals (8.7) allowed per game. Despite being at the bottom of the league in 3-point field goals themselves, Atlanta still outscored the Mercury 30-18 from the perimeter when they last met.
According to WNBA.com, Phoenix is the only team with a winning record that has a negative Net Rating (-1.5). As a result, the advanced metrics suggest its record is more reflective of a 13-15 team.
Atlanta Dream Betting Preview
You rarely see a team like Atlanta that ranks last in offensive efficiency despite having a better record than three other teams in the league with the fewest wins.
The biggest issue with the Dream this season is that its offense can sometimes get a bit stagnant. There's simply not enough ball movement, as it tends to get stuck from player to player while they seemingly take turns trying to beat the shot clock.
Despite Atlanta's recent winning streak, some red flags still caught my attention. Against Seattle, Atlanta finished with just 13 assists and 83-81 while allowing twice as many points (28) off turnovers. When it played Connecticut, it did a better job of sharing the ball (18 assists) and won 82-70 but got outrebounded 40-34. Atlanta benefited from a poor offensive display by the Sun, who shot just 35.4% from the floor.
A closer look at the Dream's Pythagorean expectation suggests it's closer to an eight-win team. Thus, I'm not entirely ready to believe this Atlanta team has officially turned the corner.
Mercury vs Dream Prediction
Mercury vs Dream Best Bet
I would guess it has probably been difficult for sportsbooks to price the Mercury this season. Phoenix is 17-11 against the spread, and as a favorite, it improves to 9-3. Those aren't the numbers you'd typically associate with a team with a negative Net Rating.
While Phoenix has undoubtedly delivered the goods for bettors as a favorite, I'm concerned that I might be too late to jump on the bandwagon in what feels like a trap game. As a result, I prefer to pivot to the props market, where Atlanta's Jordin Canada has a projection of 11.5 points.
Canada is coming off a season-high performance with 19 points against Connecticut; her previous high was 11. The seven-year veteran is averaging 10.7 points in an injury-riddled campaign that limited her to just six games thus far.
Generally, when you see a player have a massive spike in production, you want to go in the opposite direction. It's more likely that her 19 points were simply an outlier for a player who operates more as a facilitator for Atlanta while averaging 6.3 assists per game.
Look for Canada to be more of a pass-first point guard against Phoenix than a player looking to get their own buckets.
