Mercury vs Wings Odds | WNBA Picks, Predictions for Wednesday (July 3)

The Phoenix Mercury have lost two in a row but are looking to right the ship against the struggling Dallas Wings on the road. Each team enters the matchup riding a two-game losing streak, with the Mercury dropping games to Indiana and Connecticut, while the Wings lost back-to-back games against Seattle.

Read more below for my pick and prediction for the matchup between the Mercury and Wings.

The return of Brittney Griner seemed to get the Mercury going, but despite climbing back into the playoff picture, the team has still been inconsistent. 

Built around its stars, the Mercury are led in scoring by Kahleah Copper at 21.8 points per game. The former Chicago Sky star got off to a scintillating start this season but has slowed down a bit — scoring in single digits in two of her last four games. Granted she snuck in efforts of 24 and 21 points during that stretch, and overall has been the team’s most consistent scorer. 

Not to say she doesn’t get any help, because Griner and Diana Taurasi help create a formidable trio. Griner has averaged 20 points per game in her nine appearances this season, adding 6.8 boards and 1.3 blocks.

While not the walking bucket she was in her prime, Taurasi has fared well as more of a secondary option, averaging 16.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. Her 3.4 free throw attempts per outing would represent the lowest of her career, save for the average in six games played in 2019. 

When right, the Mercury have one of the better offenses in the league, especially when you consider they shoot 27.8 3s a game and play with the league’s third-fastest pace. Defensively, they are in the bottom half of the league in both points allowed and rating. 

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The Wings have lost 13 of their last 14 games, with the lone victory coming over the Minnesota Lynx. Injuries have been a big part of the problem, with 2023’s second-leading scorer, Satou Sabally, missing the entire season thus far with a shoulder ailment and this year’s third-leading scorer, Maddy Siegrist, is out with a broken finger. 

This has left Arike Ogunbowale to carry much of the offensive load, which she has to the tune of 23.7 points per game. Both the average and her shot attempts per game, 21.2, would be career highs for the No. 5 pick in the ‘19 draft. Her 9.1 3-point attempts per game are also more than she’s ever taken. 

Veteran Natasha Howard has only played in seven games this season, but in them has played well. Averaging 15.1 points, seven rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, her all-around contributions are key to the team remaining competitive. 

Another veteran, Odyssey Sims, has played in just three games this season since being signed in late June – but is coming off a 12-point, five-rebound and six-assist effort against the Storm. 

The mixing and matching of the lineup has led to a clunky offensive performance, with the Wings scoring more than just four teams. The lack of continuity has also hurt on the defensive end, as Dallas surrenders the most points in the league at 88.1 per game. Combined, the team boasts the worst Net Rating in the W.

Neither of the teams rank high in offensive rating or points per game. However, neither the Mercury nor Wings have had their full complement of players most of the year. Both teams have been forced to adjust to lineup changes, and when things click each is capable of lighting up the scoreboard.

The Over/Under for this one is set at 168.5, and given that the Wings have allowed more than 90 points in each of their last five games while the Mercury have topped 80 in seven of their last nine, the scoreboard operator should be busy.

Pick: Over 168.5 via FanDuel