Mercury vs. Aces Odds
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 172 -110o/-110u | +800 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-14.5 -14.5 | 172 -110o/-110u | -1400 |
The Mercury will visit the Aces for the second time in seven days after losing the season opener 89-80. Las Vegas opened as a 13.5-point favorite and was bet up to -16.5 but failed to cover the spread.
Bookmakers now opened the Aces at -16, but the market went the other way, betting them down to -14.5 at some books.
Last year, we saw Las Vegas succeed in this price range as an opening favorite, laying 15 or more points. The Aces went 10-4 (71.4%) in this spot for 4.94 units.
However, the Aces did have a healthy Chelsea Gray at the point guard position, who led the team with 7.3 assists.
Gray has yet to play this season as she recovers from a foot injury in the WNBA Finals.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Gray had the fourth-highest win shares of any player in the league at 7.0. And with Las Vegas yet to cover the spread in its two wins this season, perhaps the bookmakers are somewhat undervaluing Gray's importance to this Aces team.
Phoenix Mercury
Although we're only two games into the campaign, this version of the Mercury offense looks better than last year's. Phoenix is essentially a different team with three new backcourt players (Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen and Kahleah Copper) in its starting five.
It all started on Feb. 1 when the Mercury signed Cloud as a free agent on a two-year deal. Phoenix then added Allen in a trade with Connecticut for Moriah Jefferson.
The final puzzle piece was a trade for Kahleah Copper and Morgan Bertsch in exchange for Brianna Turner, Michaela Onyenwere, two first-round picks (2024, 2026) and two second-round picks (2025, 2026).
Copper gives the Mercury a bonafide scorer after averaging a career-best 18.7 points last season. She's even coming off a 38-point effort against the Atlanta Dream.
While the advanced numbers don't tend to favor the Mercury, Copper's scoring ability helps mask some of the team's deficiencies at this early stage of the season.
Phoenix currently ranks fifth in offensive efficiency, averaging 99.4 points per 100 possessions. Last year, it finished 11th with a 97.6 rating.
Las Vegas Aces
With Gray still sidelined, the Aces handed the playmaking duties to Jackie Young. While Young profiles as more of a shooting guard, she's filled in admirably, averaging 8.5 assists through two games.
She hasn't let her new responsibilities affect her scoring, as she's also averaging 22.5 points.
The biggest difference we're seeing with the Aces in Gray's absence is that the team has opted to use three frontcourt players instead of two like last year.
Ayisha Clark is now in the starting lineup after averaging 6.7 points a season ago.
However, the Aces aren't getting much from center Kiah Stokes, who is averaging three points and 22 minutes per game.
Stokes is really on the court for defensive purposes, as she only averaged 2.2 last year while starting 22 of 40 regular-season games.
If Gray were healthy, I think Clark would remain in the lineup, with Stokes returning to the bench.
Nonetheless, the Aces' offensive rating is down to 107.2 after posting a 113.0 value last season, when they won their second consecutive WNBA title.
Mercury vs. Aces
Betting Pick & Prediction
Although the Aces are still the best team in the W, bookmakers are adding a tax to lay this many points when Las Vegas is missing such a key player.
The market moves favoring teams that open as double-digit underdogs have generally been profitable in this league. Our Action Labs database, which dates back to the 2005 season, shows that teams in this spot are 137-106-5 (56.4%) against the spread for 23.44 units.
It's worth noting that this angle is on a 5-1 run this season.
After shopping around, you still catch the Mercury catching 15 points with BetRivers at -117 odds.
Pick: Mercury +15
