Phoenix Mercury WNBA Title Odds: 2023 Preseason Betting Analysis & Preview

Phoenix Mercury WNBA Title Odds

The Phoenix Mercury charted a difficult season without their best player and still managed to find some success. But there are a lot of unknowns around this team that could impact the Mercury's ceiling.

They enter the 2023 WNBA season with much higher hopes and the fourth-shortest title odds at +2500, according to FanDuel.

Here’s a look at their notable moves over the offseason and analysis on how to approach betting the Mercury before the WNBA season tips off.

Notable Offseason Transactions

Additions: Michaela Onyenwere, Moriah Jefferson, Destiny Harden (No. 27 pick in 2023 WNBA Draft), Kadi Sissoko (No. 29 pick).

Departures: Diamond DeShields.

Betting Analysis

Let's start with the obvious: It's great to have Brittney Griner back in the W, and we all hope she is doing fine both mentally and physically.

From a far more analytical and removed perspective, this is obviously a massive difference between the 2022 and 2023 Phoenix Mercury. Last season, the team was last in defensive rebounding rate and allowed the most second-chance points. If Griner is even 50% of herself, that's not going to be the case again in 2023.

Griner is far from the only potential change in Phoenix, though. Skylar Diggins-Smith announced in late 2022 that she is pregnant, and as of now, she looks like she will be missing the start of the '23 season.

Diggins-Smith notably didn't take part in the final few games of the season last year. She simply stepped away from the team without any real notice to the media as to why. (Completely and totally unrelated … Vanessa Nygaard remains the head coach in Phoenix.)

The Mercury made the playoffs for the 10th straight season last year, but it was by the skin of their teeth, and their winning percentage was the lowest in over a decade. The market sees a return to above .500 ball, however, with the Mercury sitting as pretty much the consensus fourth-best team in the league.

There's definitely some intrigue here. Sophie Cunningham made a genuine breakout last season, and the team has two of the best role players in the league in Brianna Turner and Moriah Jefferson. If Griner comes back in top form and Diggins-Smith returns halfway through the season, there will be a decent case for Phoenix to actually be the fourth-best team.

However, that's a lot of ifs, many of which skew toward the latter half of the season. We will have to see how the books make them early on, but I am guessing I will be fading them quite a bit, particularly in the first half.

I have the Mercury projected for a 20-20 season (FanDuel has them at 21.5), but with about as much variance on that number as any team.