A'ja Wilson is arguably the best WNBA player alive.
But the Las Vegas Aces star has somewhat mightily struggled against the New York Liberty this season.
And, in regards to betting, her production has been, at times, inconsistent. That isn't because she's less than amazing, but in reality, as the Aces continue to mow through teams, Wilson doesn't need to play as many minutes.
However, that isn't the problem in facing the Liberty. So today, we'll take a closer look as the WNBA Finals loom on how to bet Wilson as the two-time MVP bids for her second ring.
The case to fade A'ja Wilson's points
In five games against the Liberty, Wilson hasn't grossed 23 points, and her over/under for Game 1 is, you guessed it! 23.5.
Now, is someone as good as Wilson going to stay under for an entire series? Especially in the Finals? I highly doubt that, but it's worth mentioning as she's about to play against the only WNBA team who has held Wilson under 10 points in multiple games this season, and one of two to do so at all.
Her point totals opposite of the Liberty, in descending order, are as follows: 23, 21, 16, 9 and 9.
The 23 came in the most recent showing between the two on August 28, – a month where they played four of their five contests. The Liberty won that August 28 game, for what it's worth.
That same month, Wilson had multiple nine-point outings, one on 2-of-14 shooting in a memorable 38-point loss against the Liberty on August 6, and the other was in the Commissioner's Cup Final nine days later on 2-for-10 from the field, where the Liberty won 82-63.
With Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones on the interior, the Liberty are better equipped to contain Wilson, who has shot just 43.5 percent against the Liberty in five games.
And Wilson ultimately is not going to stretch the Liberty defense, she'll get the bulk of her points on twos and from the free throw line, and without enough volume on the latter — she is 19-for-23 in five games against the Liberty — you're not getting over.
The case to fade A'ja Wilson's rebounds
So, yeah, about Wilson's rebounds…
You're looking at a five-game sample size of the following: 8, 8, 7, 5, 3.
I've seen Wilson's over/under for boards at both 10.5 and 9.5 for Game 1, and against the Liberty, she gone over in either.
She should at some point, right? Right? … Right?!?
But against the Jones and Stewart frontcourt, and given the rebounding challenges Wilson's had, you could see why I'd be cautious to be her overs on the glass.
The case tells itself: She hasn't done it in five tries, and while her excellence should overcome that at some point, I'm not banking on it happening in Game 1, nor am I betting it with any sort of frequency at first glance.
But the case opposite of that is for the last portion of this…
The case for greatness to beat the odds
Wilson's on a tear right now.
In five playoff games alone, she's averaging 25.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per contest, shooting 59.5 percent from the field and 82.9 percent on seven free throw attempts per outing.
In the playoffs, she's gotten to 30-plus points and over 10.5 boards three times each, twice in the same game. If you stretch to August 31, Wilson's gotten to at least 26 points in seven of her last nine games — all were point-overs — and she has pulled down 10 or more boards on five occasions (11 or more on four).
She's that good and has already been a champion, but this is the worst match-up in the league for her, understandably so given A. the frontcourt and B. this is the other best team in the WNBA.
But, again, she's that good.
Bets to monitor
I think, for the Aces, this needs to be a series for the shooters if they're going to win. In the playoffs, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young are doing the heavy lifting from the perimeter. Plum is hitting 42.1 percent from deep on 7.6 attempts per game, and Young follows at 41.4 percent on 5.8 attempts. Alysha Clark is a team-best 42.9 percent on 2.8 threes per game, and Chelsea Gray is just 33 percent on 3.0 attempts a night.
In the previous two wins over the Liberty, Wilson wasn't who killed them.
When the Aces won 98-81 on June 29, Wilson had 16, one of five starters to have at least 14, where the Aces were led by Plum's 18. Wilson, with nine attempts, hoisted the fewest field goal attempts of all starters, and the team shot 9-of-25 from three (36 percent).
In their other win over the Libs on August 17, they won 88-75 and while Wilson had 21 on 7-of-13 shooting, they were paced by Gray, who had 22 (and 11 assists) while shooting 10-for-22. Worth noting: Plum shot 7-for-14, one more attempt than Wilson, who has led the team in the regular season and playoffs in shot attempts and usage.
Bets I'd tracking are as follows:
- Wilson points under — This is at 23.5, so until she explodes, I'm probably going under — and I might even if she does, given that it's unlikely she'll routinely go off in this series.
- Wilson rebound under — If this is at 10.5, I'm banging the under for now. If it's at 9.5, I'm probably still playing it, but with more hesitancy.
- Plum and Young three-point overs — Young is at 1.5 for Game 1, and that's -162 on FanDuel, so this could easily change. Plum is at over 2.5 in each of her last three games. I'm not playing these every single game, but I probably will in Game 1, and go from there.
