Sparks vs. Mercury Odds | WNBA Picks, Predictions for Friday (June 28)
(Photo by Adam Bettcher/NBAE via Getty Images) Pictured: Diana Taurasi
Sparks vs. Mercury Odds
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 166 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 166 -110o / -110u | -470 |
Teams headed opposite directions will meet Friday as the Los Angeles Sparks take on the Mercury in Phoenix. Although losers of their most recent game, the Mercury have won five of their past eight and are 4-3 since Brittney Griner returned to the lineup. The Sparks, on the other hand, have lost their past six games and are still adjusting to life without star rookie Cameron Brink, who is done for the season after tearing her ACL.
Let's dig into the WNBA odds and make a Sparks vs. Mercury pick.
Los Angeles Sparks
The Sparks weren't off to a great start before Brink went down, though there was hope that the re-tooled and youthful roster would improve as the season went along. That may still happen, but this team is struggling on both ends of the floor. The Sparks are second-to-last in the league in points per game (77.9) and allowing fewer points per game than just two other teams.
Advanced stats highlight the Sparks as having the second-worst offensive rating and third-worst defensive rating, so you need not dig deep in search of answers for why they've struggled to a 4-13 record.
That's not to say this isn't a dangerous team. Veteran Dearica Hamby is averaging career bests in points (17.8), rebounds (10.5) and assists (3.5), and leading the team in all three categories. After her, though, it's anyone's guess as to who is going to step up.
Rookie Rickea Jackson has played well and is averaging nearly 10 points and 3.3 rebounds on nearly eight field goal attempts per game. However, her past two games, both against the New York Liberty and without Brink, were largely forgettable.
Guard Aari McDonald is another young player who has shown flashes. In her first year with the Sparks after being acquired from Atlanta in the offseason, McDonald scored in double figures in six straight games before producing a two-point dud in her most recent contest. Despite that outing, the former No. 3 overall pick (2021) is having a bounce-back season, flashing the scoring and playmaking ability that made her such a tantalizing prospect.
Where the Sparks can be dangerous is with their ability to get to the free-throw line. Their average of 20.8 attempts per game is fourth in the league, and in their recent loss to the Liberty, they made 22-of-26 attempts. It wasn't enough to win the game, but free throws are often a way to keep the score close.
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix's offseason acquisition of Kahleah Copper has been a resounding success, as she has given the team a true No. 1 scoring option to help carry the load along with Griner, Diana Taurasi and fellow offseason pickup Natasha Cloud.
Copper is averaging a career-best 22.6 points per game, while also pulling down 4.4 rebounds per game. She takes around seven 3s per game, makes 36% of them, and gets to the free-throw line a little more than five times per outing. Her scoring hasn't suffered with Griner back in the lineup, and the team as a whole has benefited.
Returning from injury, Griner has appeared in six games and is averaging 19.5 points, seven rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game. She had a stretch of games where she scored 24, 25 and 28 points, showing the rest of the league that she's still a force on the floor. The recent break may have done her good, as her most recent outing saw her shoot just 29% against Minnesota.
Now, it probably speaks well of what the Mercury have put together in that one of the all-time greats, Taurasi, is still very good and not necessarily the most important player on the floor. Averaging 16.3 points per game, she is hoisting 7.7 3s per outing and making 2.7. Having a slightly smaller role on offense has led to improvements in other parts of Taurasi's game, as her average of 4.8 rebounds is the best mark she's posted since 2009. Taurasi is also averaging the fewest number of turnovers in her career, another sign that she's not being asked to create as much as in the past.
As first-year coach Nate Tibbetts continues to work Griner back into the fold, it'll be interesting to see how high their ceiling can climb. Their overall stats — ninth in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating — are a bit misleading. The Mercury play at the third-fastest pace in the league, which helps to explain why they are averaging the fifth-most points while giving up more than just four others. With a full roster, their arrow is pointing up.
Sparks vs. Mercury
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Mercury are -9.5, according to FanDuel, with a moneyline price of -470. The Sparks are +340 on the moneyline and the over/under is 166.
These teams have met one other time this season (June 2 in Phoenix) and the Mercury won 87-68. That game took place with Brink and without Griner, and was one where Taurasi went off for 31 points — including seven 3s. The teams that will take the floor Friday are very different from those that played that day. The time off has given the Sparks more time to adjust to their recent lineup challenges, but has also given the Mercury an opportunity to gain continuity and, perhaps more importantly, rest. With a deeper and more balanced roster, being fresh should be the difference between a close win and a comfortable victory.
Pick: Mercury -9.5 |
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