The Sun’s acquisition of Marina Mabrey has had 10 games to take effect, and so far the Sun have only seen declines in both offensive and especially defensive rating. Now, they are coming off back to back losses and are finally in a much needed bounce back spot. This spread is achievable for the Sun, but this is a team that relies on their defense and mucks up opponent rhythms. They are also facing former Connecticut and current Sparks’ head coach, Curt Miller, in this matchup who knows these Sun players better than most.
As for the Sparks, they just signed Odyssey Sims to a rest-of-season hardship contract, and “hardship” is putting it lightly. After star rookie, Cameron Brink, went down earlier this season, the wheels continued to fall off for the Sparks. At this point, they have pretty much set their sights on the 2025 draft and their league-worst 7-25 record is right on track to help their chances of securing the No. 1 overall pick.
Pick: Dearica Hamby Under 18.5 Points and Assists -120 (FanDuel)
Let's get into my Sun vs. Sparks picks and prediction!
Sun vs. Sparks Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 160 -108/-112 | -520 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 160 -108/-112 | +380 |
Connecticut Sun: Time To Get Back On Track
Last time the Sun took on the Sparks on August 20th, the Sun won by eight but failed to cover as 13.5 point home favorites. Earlier this season they beat L.A. by nine but also failed to cover as 13.5 point home favorites. The Sun are the third worst team ATS this season, and are still making adjustments with Mabrey entering their lineup. Since her addition, the Sun sped things up, going from 12th in pace to 6th. However, they also dropped from 3rd in turnover percentage to 6th, and from 2nd in opponent 2nd chance points per game to 5th.
Both previous games vs the Sparks resulted in the under cashing, with the Sun 18-16 to the under so far this season. In their last ten games, Connecticut is 8th in offensive rating, while the Sparks are ranked dead last. Pair that with a durable Sun defense and points should be in short supply.
Los Angeles Sparks: Keep An Eye On Hamby
Most recently, Los Angeles lost to Chicago by 14. They notched one uncharacteristic win over the Liberty on Aug 28th, but overall have lost 10 games in their last 11. Their defensive rating sits in the bottom of the league, and one of their strongest defenders and best ball handlers, Aari McDonald, is listed as questionable for this game.
Dearica Hamby has been held to under 10 points in only six games this season. Two of those games were vs. the Sun. In those games, she recorded no more than 3 assists, so I’m taking Hamby under 18.5 points and assists. She averages 3.5 assists on the season, and recently in her last 5 games she has bumped that to 4.2, but with her points limited down low, and few legitimate options to kick it out to, the under looks like the right side here.
Sun vs. Sparks: Back The Unders In This Matchup
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Sparks have so few scoring options, and they ones they do have not previously thrived in this matchup. The Sun should get things back on track here, and should be able to cover this nearly double digit spread. Still, this is not an offensive powerhouse type of team, so I’m backing these unders.
