Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his top five WNBA props to target on PrizePicks this Thursday. He has a 47-18 record on picks he's written about so far this season.
Picks are listed below in order of his confidence, with a 10-rating being the highest. Note that Sean likes to play the following picks as a five-pack, then two- to three-packs based on the props he likes the most, hence why he provides confidence ratings.
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Thursday WNBA Picks
Allie Quigley Over 9.5 Points
The Sparks are the worst defensive team in the league and are particularly vulnerable from beyond the arc as they have allowed 9.5 3PM/G (the most allowed per game). Quigley is the Sky's 3-point specialist and she should thrive in tonight's matchup. I'm projecting her closer to 12.5 points.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
NaLyssa Smith Over 7.5 Rebounds
The talented rookie is starting to hit her stride and has averaged 11 rebounds over her past five contests. Dallas averages 40.2 missed field goal attempts a game (2nd most in the league), which means Smith should have plenty of rebound chances tonight. I'm projecting her closer to nine rebounds.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
Jordin Canada Under 4.5 Assists
Canada played a season-low 18 minutes last game after she was benched for Brittney Sykes. Canada is also losing playing time to Kristi Toliver, who returned to the lineup a couple of weeks ago. As a result, Canada will see her assist rate drop when playing with the reserves, as I expect her to take more shots. I'm projecting her closer to four assists.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
Kelsey Mitchell Under 2.5 3s
The best way to score against the Dallas defense is to attack the rim. Dallas allows the second fewest threes made per game, so I expect Mitchell to drive to the hoop at a higher rate tonight. I'm projecting her closer to two three's made.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 Turnovers
The Mystics generate turnovers at the second-highest rate in the league and Loyd averages 2.3 turnovers a game. I'm projecting her closer to 2.5 turnovers tonight.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
Nneka Ogwumike Under 3.5 Free Throws Made
Ogwumike averages 3.1 FTM/G and the Sky allows the fourth-lowest FTA per game. I would not be shocked if Ogwumike finishes with exactly three free throws made. I love the value here.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
Skylar Diggins-Smith Under 2 3s
Diggins-Smith has only made 3+ threes in two games this season while finishing with one or fewer six times. There is a decent chance this prop will push (if she ends with two exactly), but it seems less likely this one loses. I'm projecting her closer to 1.5.
Confidence Rating: 7 out of 10
Allisha Gray Over 13.5 Points
The Wings team's total for tonight is nearly eight points higher than their season average. Gray should thrive against a Fever defense that struggles to defend similar players. I'm projecting her closer to 16 points.
Confidence Rating: 7 out of 10
Shakira Austin Over 7.5 Points
Elizabeth Williams is out for tonight's game, so we could see Austin pick up an extra 3-4 minutes of playing time. The Storm are an excellent defensive team, but they can be vulnerable around the rim. The talented rookie should be able to take advantage of both factors tonight and I'm projecting her closer to 9.5 points.
Confidence Rating: 6 out of 10
