Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his top five WNBA props to target on PrizePicks this Thursday. He has a 71-32 record on picks he’s written about so far this season.
Picks are listed below in order of his confidence rating, with a 10-rating being the highest.
Note that Sean likes to play the following picks as a five-pack, then two- to three-packs based on the props he likes the most, hence why he provides confidence ratings.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Thursday's WNBA Picks
Aerial Powers Over 3 Free Throws Made
Powers does a fantastic job of getting to the line, and she faces an Atlanta team that allows the second-most free throw attempts per game (21.3).
Powers is also due for some positive regression at the line, as she’s only shot 79.9% from the charity stripe this season despite shooting 84.2% for her career.
I’m projecting her closer to 4.5 free throws made tonight.
Alyssa Thomas Under 3.5 Free Throws Made
Seattle allows the fewest free throw attempts per game, and Thomas will likely regress toward her career FT% of 63.5% (she's made 73% this year).
I'm projecting her closer to 2.5 free throws made.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
Chiney Ogwumike Over 8 Rebounds
The Sparks have moved on from Liz Cambage, which means Chiney will be their starting center for the rest of the season.
The Mercury have allowed a league high 39.2 rebounds per game (over 10 games) since trading away Tina Charles. Chiney should take advantage of their small lineup tonight and crush this prop.
I’m projecting her closer to 9.5 rebounds.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
Gabby Williams Under 4.5 Rebounds
Williams has managed to average 4.9 rebounds a game despite only being 5-foot-11
The Storm have been playing with a much taller lineup ever since acquiring Charles. Williams has only averaged 4.4 rebounds a game ever since the Storm have been giving Charles 20+ minutes a game (past seven games).
She now faces a Sun team that has allowed the fewest rebounds per game (29.2), and I’m projecting her closer to 3.5 tonight.
Confidence Rating: 7 out of 10
Marina Mabrey Under 3.5 Assists
Mabrey has been held under this number 60% of the time this year and tonight, she faces a Mystics team that allows a league-low 18.2 assists per game.
I think there is some sneaky value on her under, and I’m projecting her closer to three assists.
Confidence Rating: 6 out of 10
