Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his top-five WNBA props to target on PrizePicks this Tuesday. He has a 62-27 record on picks he’s written about so far this season.
Picks are listed below in order of his confidence, with a 10-rating being the highest.
Note that Sean likes to play the following picks as a five-pack, then two- to three-packs based on the props he likes the most, hence why he provides confidence ratings.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Tuesday WNBA Picks
Kristi Toliver Under 4.5 Assists (9)
Toliver is returning to action after missing the last two games due to a calf injury. However, Brittney Sykes is also returning to action, meaning the frontcourt is a bit crowded right now.
I'm expecting Toliver to play 22-25 minutes tonight against a Mystics team that plays at the slowest pace and has a top-three defense. As a result, I'm projecting her closer to 3 assists.
Nneka Ogwumike Under 19.5 Points (8)
The Mystics rank second in defensive rating and last in pace of play. They are a very tough team to score on, especially around the rim, where Ogumike does most of her damage.
I'm projecting her closer to 17 points.
Emma Meesseman Under 3.5 Assists (8)
Meesseman has averaged 3.0 assists per game and is facing an Atlanta team that has allowed the third-fewest assists a game. One thing I noticed about Meesseman is her assist distribution itself suggests we should see her finish under 3.5 assists at a higher rate going forward.
Here is what her distribution has looked like after 22 games this season:
Based on her assist rate this season, we would expect her distribution to look closer to this:
Meesseman has been held under 3.5 assists 54.5% of the time this season, but her expected distribution suggests we should see her finish with three or fewer assists 64% of the time.
Based on the matchup and some incoming regression for Meesseman’s assist distribution, I love the under here.
Stefanie Dolson Under 9.5 Points (7)
Dolson was on fire before the break, clearing this number in three of the last four games. She should cool off a bit after shooting 67% from the field over the stretch, and with Rebecca Allen returning to the lineup, we could see Dolson's playing time take a hit.
The Aces are excellent at preventing easy baskets around the rim, meaning this will be a tougher matchup for Dolson. I'm projecting her closer to 7.5 points.
Crystal Dangerfield Under 5.5 Points (7)
I'm targeting another Liberty player to go under her point total. Typically, I would avoid doing this, but I'm willing to double down here because Dolson and Dangerfield play two completely different roles on offense.
In addition, Dangerfield's playing time has taken a hit since DiDi Richards and Marine Johannes joined the rotation in June. With Rebecca Allen returning to action, I would not be surprised if Dangerfield played less than 10 minutes tonight.
As a result, I'm projecting her closer to 4 points.
