Caitlin Clark has the most hype for a rookie in WNBA history.
She was on damn Saturday Night Live this past weekend.
And now, the focus will be on how she does or doesn't live up to the unrelenting expectations.
Clark was such a lock to go No. 1 to the Indiana Fever that you can't even bet on it. Such a lock to go No. 1 overall that FanDuel listed Stanford forward Cameron Brink -9,000 to go No. 2 as of Friday.
Clark herself was +10,000 to fall to No. 2 — and honestly, that's too short of a line. You couldn't juice that line nearly enough. Seriously.
Recent years of growth and player development will tell you that we're in or heading toward the best of the WNBA, but that could also mark a challenging road ahead as the league gets more competitive and, soon, more expansive.
Here are the elements to watch that could measure how Clark does, or doesn't, deliver in year one.
What Recent History May Tell Us About Clark's Future
Clark arrives to the W listed at 6 feet tall and 155 pounds and will almost definitely walk into a starting guard role for the Fever, who were an Eastern Conference worst 13-27.
Here are the list of double-digit scoring rookie guards over the last five draft classes:
2023 – Diamond Miller: 12.1 points per game on 40/31/80 shooting (No. 2 overall) – 25 percent usage, third on team
2022 – Rhyne Howard: 16.2 points per game on 36/34/79 shooting (No. 1 overall) – 25.5 usage, first on team
2020 – Sabrina Ionescu: 18.3 points per game (just three appearances) on 45/35/100 – 11.7 points, 6.1 assists and 5.7 rebounds per game on 38/33/91 shooting in 2021, first full season. (No. 1 overall) – 21.6 usage, third on team
2020 – Chennedy Carter: 17.4 points per game on 47/37/81 shooting (No. 4 overall) – 31.9 usage, first on team
2020 – Crystal Dangerfield: 16.2 points and 3.6 assists on 47/33/92 shooting. (No. 16 overall) – 24.6 usage, second on team
2019 – Arike Ogunbowale: 19.1 points per game on 39/35/82 shooting (No. 5 overall) – 30.4 usage, first on team
Stylistically, you'll notice that Clark doesn't have a similar archetype here outside of Ionescu — and no, I'm not just comparing two white women — but it really underlines that point guards haven't come into the W and been as great offensively and instantly as many seem to think Clark will.
But if the above is any indicator, she should have the usage necessary to put up numbers on a game by game basis.
Ionescu, Dangerfield and Ogunbowale are the only point guards of the above group, and the latter two have never averaged even four assists per game.
And rookie guards in recent classes — and historically — don't enter the league and are lights out from an efficiency standpoint.
Which is to say, while we think Clark will score, how much and how efficient she is may be overstated when holding up the performances of other recent rookie guards in the W. But if she's that good and legitimately without precedent, much of the above won't matter.
Back a little further, Kelsey Mitchell — one of Clark's Indiana Fever teammates — averaged 12.7 points per game on 35/34/80 shooting and was the No. 2 overall pick in 2018.
Speaking of teammates, that's the other important element of this.
Will The Fever Set Up Clark To Succeed?
Of the Fever's 2024 roster so far, there are seven guards and five players who qualify as a forward and or center. ESPN lists them at six and six. Regardless, the Fever are welcoming another guard into a guard heavy squad.
Furthermore, their 2023 leading scorer was the aforementioned Mitchell, who poured in 18.2 points per game and shot 14 times per game. She's also the teams highest paid player, along with fellow starting guard Erica Wheeler.
Wheeler is the starting point guard right now and for now. The former All-Star Game MVP averaged 10 points and five assists last season on 40/31/88 shooting. Notably, she was only third in usage at 20.3 among players who logged at least 315 minutes.
No. 1 was 2022 No. 2 overall pick NaLyssa Smith, who logged 15.5 points and 9.2 rebounds per game while starting in the frontcourt with Rookie of the Year Aaliyah Boston, who put up 14.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per game while managing a 19.4 usage (fourth).
So the process of how Clark is managed early matters? Do you just give her the keys right away and move Wheeler to the bench? Or do you run a two-point guard, three-guard starting five that would slot Clark in with Wheeler, Mitchell, Smith and Boston?
The other options to keep in mind: One is Lexie Hull, who started 25 of 30 appearances last season in a three-guard starting five and only averaged 4.6 points per game in over 20 minutes a contest and shot about 22 percent from three.
Kristy Wallace ended the season as a starter and averaged about eight points per game while hitting 17-for-28 from three in her last eight games.
And Katie Lou Samuelson was signed by the team in February to a multi-year deal. Samuelson started in 29 of 32 in 2022, her last WNBA season, averaging 9.7 points and shooting 35 percent from deep. In 2021, she started 24 of 27 and logged seven points a game while equaling the same percent from deep.
None of those are high usage options, and realistically, they don't warrant standing in the way of an incoming No. 1 overall pick. What we can expect is for Mitchell, Smith and Boston to remain, barring any deals, and it will come down to whether or not Clark plays with Wheeler or Samuelson in the other spot. If it's Samuelson, Clark will have a higher usage given that Samuelson will be the fifth option and has never had a usage exceeding 17 percent. If it's Wheeler, it means the Fever are running two starting point guards to begin the season in her and Clark.
But honestly, it might not swing the difference dramatically because this isn't an ordinary No. 1 overall pick relative to expectations, star power, and likely her actual play.
