Wings vs. Sparks Odds
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 160.5 -110/ -110 | -170 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 160.5 -110/ -110 | +138 |
The Dallas Wings and Los Angeles Sparks will run back what was a tight matchup on Friday as part of the second half of an ABC doubleheader on Sunday.
The Sparks pulled ahead in the fourth quarter and held on to win in a low-scoring 76-74 affair in the first half of this home-and-home, but there's reason to believe the second game may not play out in the exact same manner.
Dallas Wings
The Wings suffered from a bit of bad luck on Friday, connecting on just five of their 24 3s. They entered the game expecting to make nearly eight attempts out of 24, and their five made 3s were the second-fewest of the season.
Their two stars, Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally, combined to go 3-of-13 from deep and came up a combined dozen points below their season averages.
The Sparks defense has been solid this season, but not that spectacular, so it's not shock to see the Wings' team total sitting at 81.5 for the Sunday afternoon rematch. The Wings have also taken the majority of the early money, moving the line from Wings -2 to Wings -3.5, despite taking the loss in the last game.
Los Angeles Sparks
One might imagine that the Sparks then also got lucky on Friday, or at least they didn't have bad luck.
However, that's not really the case. The Sparks also got terrible luck from 3 — in fact, arguably worse luck — as they made just 2-of-18 3-point attempts. However, they did get a much needed 18 points from Destanni Henderson off the bench–something they definitively should not count on moving forward.
What jumps off the page most from Friday's matchup, however, is the pace. The game was played at a pace of 81.2, which is basically right in line for the Wings, who play at the second-fastest clip in the league.
That means a few things. First, the Sparks weren't able to get the Wings out of their preferred style of play. Second, a game like that, given expected shooting percentages, should have flown past the over.
This game has not seen the total budge from its opening 160.5 number, but I see some value on a potential over in this spot. Sure, Henderson is not going to drop 18 points again for the Sparks, but with even a bit of 3-point luck on either side, this total should be looking like an over if the pace remains similar.
Wings-Sparks Pick
Overall, it seems fair that the Wings are favored despite losing on Friday. The Sparks offense continued to look lost without Lexie Brown; it was only a crazy bench performance from Henderson and a terrible night of shooting luck from the Wings that handed the Friday win to the Sparks.
I'll be eyeing the first-half over, as well as the Wings team total over 81.5. I also am going to be looking to hammer one player prop: Kalani Brown under 7.5 rebounds.
With Teaira McCowan back for Dallas, Brown has seen her minutes slip into the teens. She sustained her rebounding numbers in the first game after McCowan returned, where Brown saw a decrease in minutes, but Friday's game painted a much more accurate portrait of what to expect moving forward, as Brown had just three points and four rebounds. I would take this bet all the way down to under 5.5 rebounds at plus money.
Pick: Wings Over 81.5 | Kalani Brown Under 7.5 Rebounds
