The WNBA schedule for Friday features a loaded five-game slate, including the Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever. Our experts have three picks for that matchup — including prop picks, bets on the total, and a spread prediction — as well as four more picks for Friday's slate.
Let's get to our WNBA best bets for Friday, September 13.
WNBA Best Bets for Friday, September 13
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our WNBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Aces vs. Fever
We're running it back here.
A'ja Wilson returned from a brief absence and juuuuust cleared 26.5 points because of a late rally.
Wilson got to 27 in the fourth quarter, and needed 28 shots to do so, tying her season high in attempts. Why am I optimistic after that? Because as it stands, Wilson shot 39%, her fourth-lowest percentage of the season. She was missing shots she typically makes — layups near the rim, jumpers from a face-up position, 12-foot fadeaways, etc.
She shot 59% and 67% in two other games against Indy this year, and she's gone over all three times this year (and two of three times last season) against this same frontcourt.
Pick: A'ja Wilson Over 26.5 Points
| | | | | | |
Aces vs. Fever
Friday's Fever vs Aces game will be the second straight matchup between these teams, as they just played on Wednesday. They are staying in Indiana, so there is no rest disparity between teams and no travel component for the road team.
The first game went under and that was in large part just due to poor shooting. The line has reopened four points lower than the previous close, so I read this as an overreaction from the books, and that playing backing back toward the closing lines from the first game is a smart capping strategy.
I will play the over 176.5 and expect it to close around 178.
Pick: Over 176.5
| | | | | | |
Aces vs. Fever
This is a similar cap to my process to take the over in this game. The Fever and Aces just played, and market information for a game is more important to me than the results of that game. I noticed trends towards the over and Fever, but the Aces and under ended up winning.
I think we see the same sort of line movement trends here, and the market not overreacting to one game by the times the line close. Fever +6 and a sprinkle on a ML north of 2:1 is a great spot to play the home team that simply shot poorly last game.
Pick: Fever +6
| | | | | | |
Mystics vs. Dream
If you follow me in the app, you'll see that my most regular bet by far has been to bet on the Mystics in the first half. It's one of the biggest wagons we've had in sports betting in quite some time — especially on the road where they're 16-3 ATS. That's an insane hit rate of 85%.
As good as the Mystics have been on the road, that's how bad the Dream have been at home in the first half. They're just 3-15 ATS for a 16.7% hit rate.
Both teams are classic Jekyll and Hyde personas, but inverse versions — a perfect opportunity to make some real money by playing the angles intelligently. Atlanta has been much better since Jordin Canada came back from injury, but most of that improvement has come in the second half where it has the third best Net Rating since her return (+7.9).
Even with a bump from Candada, the Dream are still the worst first-half team in the league overall (-10.8). Meanwhile, Washington is the worst second-half team in Net Rating (-11.1).
I'll take the Mystics in the first half on the spread for 1.5-units and sprinkle .25-units on a "double result" bet of Mystics moneyline / Dream full-game in case we see that classic second-half collapse from Washington.
Pick: Mystics 1H +1.5 / Double Result: WAS 1H / ATL full game
| | | | | | |
Mystics vs. Dream
This Mystics vs. Dream matchup may be for a final playoff spot. Both teams are tied with 12 wins and are one back of the plummeting Chicago Sky. With the huge sense of urgency and pressure in this game, I expect pace to slow, the game to be a bit sloppier, shooting efficiency to dip, and so on. It is a playoff game for all intents and purposes because the loser will be eliminated. Lets play into playoff intensity as the regular season closes out.
Pick: Under 158.5
| | | | | | |
Storm vs. Wings
The Dallas Wings are on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Seattle Storm, who have a one-day rest advantage and who just beat the Los Angeles Sparks while having a three-day rest advantage.
The Storm beat the Wings by 21 and 24 at home during the summer — now, that was over two months ago in consecutive games in Seattle — but following the Wings' effort against the New York Liberty on Thursday, they're in a tough spot, even if it's at home.
And on top of that, you have the added element of the Storm actually playing for something.
As of this writing, they're fifth in the west, narrowly behind the Las Vegas Aces for fourth. Given that they'll likely face each other, getting homecourt for a three-game series would be massive.
The Wings ain't playing for anything but pride. And maybe Paige Bueckers.
Pick: Storm -6.5
| | | | | | |
Sky vs. Lynx
By Joe Dellera
The Lynx take on the Sky, who continue to be without rookie Angel Reese. It weakens their interior presence despite injecting Izzy Harrison into the primary rotation.
Collier has not been as good this season against the Sky with just 13 and 15 points in two meetings; however, without Reese, the Sky are allowing about 7% more points in the paint to their opponents and their Defensive Rating has slipped a touch as well.
Collier has exceeded this line in 50% of games this season and given the extra rest since they have not played since Tuesday, she should be feeling spry. When Collier has 3+ days of rest this season she is averaging 23 ppg.
I’ll back Phee to exceed 19.5 points as they try to secure the 2-seed.
Pick: Napheesa Collier Over 19.5 Points
| | | | | | |
