There are three games scheduled in the WNBA today. However, our betting experts are focused on one matchup in particular. They've locked in a pair of picks and predictions for Sparks vs. Liberty, which tips off at 3:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Read below for our two WNBA best bets for Saturday, June 22.
Sparks vs Liberty Best Bets: Saturday, June 22
We have some mid-afternoon action in the WNBA as the Sparks face the Liberty for the second time in as many games at the Barclays Center.
While New York won the first game by double-digits (93-80), it failed to cover the 14.5-point spread after leading by as many as 19 points.
However, a closer look at the box score reveals some positives for Los Angeles in the loss.
It outshot New York from the floor (50.0%-49.3%), won the rebounding battle (34-30), and scored more points inside the paint (42-38).
The biggest difference in the game was the Liberty outshooting the Sparks from the perimeter (13-7).
Although there’s no question that New York is the better team, I have my suspicions about laying as many as 15.5 points with the Liberty in this rematch.
According to the GimmeTheDog database, while WNBA teams are 12-1 straight up when facing the same team in back-to-back games as a favorite of 15 or more points, they’re only 3-9-1 against the spread.
Moreover, the Sparks have covered the spread the last five games in this series, and eight of the previous 10.
This is simply a case where the favorites are laying too many points, and there are enough positive takeaways from the previous meeting to help the Sparks keep this game inside the number.
Pick: Sparks +16 (-110)
by Joe Nelson
Thursday's win for the Liberty over the Sparks featured several big swings with the heavy underdog leading early in the game and within one possession for most of the first half. New York pulled away late in the third quarter, leading by as many as 19 but the Sparks rallied to climb within six halfway through the fourth quarter.
While Los Angeles barely covered in the 13-point loss, it was a six-point game with just over two minutes remaining before New York closed the game on an 11-4 run for an odd ending for a team with a comfortable lead with three late 3-point makes from New York to pad the final margin.
Despite the comfortable result, New York's starters played significantly including 38 minutes from Sabrina Ionescu and six players reaching 25 minutes of action. Los Angeles has far more depth spreading minutes around 10 players even without Cameron Brink, now heading towards a turnaround of fewer than 48 hours.
The rematch two days later in Brooklyn has a similar spread even as Los Angeles has put together a run of competitive games vs. quality teams on the current losing streak.
The Sparks went 0-3 SU vs. the Liberty last season, but they went 3-0 ATS. New York is only 6-10 ATS this season, and the Liberty have only won by more than 13 points on three occasions in 16 games
Two of those wins were vs. the Fever, and two of the Liberty's three lopsided wins were on the road, as New York is just 1-7 ATS at home this season, facing steep lines and with an overall profile that is likely inflated from beating up on teams at the bottom of the league.
Only three times this season have the Sparks lost by a margin greater than today's spread, and all three of those games came in the same 10-day span. This is a favorable price on the Sparks after a much closer game than the final margin suggested on Thursday, with New York having one of its best 3-point shooting games of the season with 13 makes.
Los Angeles left a lot of points at the free throw line but had a rebounding and interior scoring edge in this matchup, and it won't be a surprise if this spread trickles downward closer to game time, just as Thursday's line did.
Pick: Sparks +16 (-110)
