Action Network contributor and WNBA betting expert Jim Turvey joined host Maria Marino on the BUCKETS Podcast on Friday to break down the WNBA betting slate, including best bets from both games.
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Liberty vs. Dream Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -118 | 170.5 -108 / -112 | -385 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -104 | 170.5 -108 / -112 | +290 |
Jim Turvey: This is the third matchup between these two teams; they have split them so far. The Dream won the most recent matchup, but it's a little bit of fool's gold when you win a matchup when Breanna Stewart goes 1-of-14 from the floor. That is not going to happen again. I'm going stake all of my credibility on the fact that she will not go 1-of-14 from the floor again.
This is a good Dream team, and to be honest, if I was looking at this spread for the full game, I would probably do a tiny lean toward the Dream. The Liberty haven't quite fully clicked to the point where I see them as this big a favorite on the road. However, I am a little bit worried that they will come in really locked in.
I think Stewie is way more competitive than she wears on her sleeve, but she will have some added motivation tonight, and we will see locked-in Stewie. I like this second half play, because even if the Liberty come out guns blazing, and Stewie has 20 at the half, we can still win this bet if the Liberty win by a dozen, or, in theory, by 20.
What this Dream team has done all season is they've fallen behind in the first half and kind of clawed their way back in the second half. In the inverse, the Liberty have gotten off to really fast starts and then they've faded down the stretch. It is early enough in the season where these half and quarter trends are a little bit noisy, but the Dream are the top team in point differential between the second and first half, and the Liberty are the inverse, better in the first half and worse in the second.
I think the stars are aligning here along with the fact that it's a game script where we're thinking of the Liberty coming out hot and looking for revenge. Maybe they get out to a big lead at the half, but our bet is not dead, in fact, it's just beginning, since the Dream can claw their way back.
Pick: Dream Second Half +3.5
Wings vs. Sparks Odds
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 163.5 -106 / -114 | -115 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 163.5 -106 / -114 | -105 |
Jim Turvey: I do think there is a pretty key factor for the Sparks. They have lost three straight games, but in all three they have been without Lexie Brown. She had an outstanding start to her season. She had been in that Most Improved Player conversation, but she has been out for the last three games, and their offense has really struggled without her.
They lost to the Lynx twice, who are not a great defense, and to the Sun, who are a great defense. They are averaging less than 70 points per game over those three games, and they have not reached 80 in any of those. Their team total today is 82.5, and that just seems too high for me based on what they have been doing in recent games without Brown.
Dallas' defense isn't amazing, but they do have Teaira McCowan back. That's why, if I had to go for a side today, I would lean towards the Wings, since I'm a really big Teaira McCowan fan. I think she has a huge impact both offensively and defensively. My favorite best bet of this game is the under 82.5 on that team total.
Pick: Sparks Team Total Under 82.5
