Action Network contributor and WNBA betting expert Dano Mataya of Her Hoops Stats joined host Maria Marino on the BUCKETS Podcast on Tuesday to break down the WNBA betting slate, including best bets from all three games.
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Dream vs. Wings Odds
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -118 | 171.5 -114 / -106 | +128 |
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -104 | 171.5 -114 / -106 | -158 |
Dano Mataya: I like the way these two teams not only play with pace, but put consistent shooters on the court. We're seeing an uptick in the offense from Atlanta specifically now that Haley Jones is in the starting lineup, which I don't think a lot of people projected from a rookie, but it's definitely working. A lot of the turnovers that she has are plays that lead to two points on the other end. They are kind of bad turnovers, but she often corrects herself in the second half, which we've seen at New York and at Connecticut.
We've seen Atlanta go to three straight overs, except for the game against the Liberty, but that was when Brianna Stewart had one of the worst shooting games of probably the last two decades for her, since she was six years old. There's no way this game should not hit 180, unless these teams just shoot awfully. Both teams are great at getting to the foul line.
There's a chance we see Teaira McCowan back, which could mess with Dallas' pace a little bit, but I don't see them playing her just getting back from Turkey in the European Women's Basketball Championships. I still like the original five they have; they are still getting great minutes from Kalani Brown. Satou Sabally is in the MVP race, and Arike Ogunbowale is coming off a 39-point performance in a loss. They've lost three in a row, so they're gonna be hungry, and Atlanta is super hot.
I can't not play this over. The only way it doesn't hit is if each team just has a terrible shooting night .
Pick: Over 171.5 |
Lynx vs. Sparks Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | +190 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | -240 |
Dano Mataya: I'm taking the Lynx team total over 76.5 at -106 at FanDuel. I don't find anything about this Sparks team that definitively scares me. I think that seeing the effects of the absence of Lexie Brown are definitely showing, and they're going through some obvious growing pains. They inserted Zia Cooke into the starting lineup recently, but aren't really getting that much. They've had two blown leads and blown covers. They were up 10 in that game last Friday.
It's harder to beat a team three times for sure, especially in two weeks, but teams that have played against the Aces are 5-2 against the spread in their next game and 5-2 straight-up. So you go take your beating in Vegas, get your mind right, and you go back and give it a chance to play against the Sparks, who you know you have a competitive edge against and you've beaten them before.
Napheesa Collier is playing great, they are getting great minutes off the bench from Lindsay Allen. Jessica Shepard is out, which definitely hurts, but their pace is still pretty high. I have no idea what happened in the second half of that Las Vegas Aces game; they scored nine points through 15 minutes in the second half.
I expect some regression to the mean, and a lot of points coming from the Lynx.
Pick: Lynx Team Total Over 76.5
Sun vs. Storm Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -106 | 159.5 -112 / -108 | -500 |
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -114 | 159.5 -112 / -108 | +360 |
Dano Mataya: I'm taking the Seattle Storm +9.5 at home against the Connecticut Sun. I think I would have taken them at +8.5; full disclosure, I already did. Home dogs, over the last 30 days, are 70% covering the spread.
Seattle, as bad as they've looked in some games, specifically against the Las Vegas Aces, they have good things going. Ezi Magbegor is playing at a near-All-Star level. They have Jewell Loyd. They're getting incredible minutes from the rookie Ivana Dojkic, and I think it's a prime spot for a Connecticut letdown.
I wouldn't be surprised if Connecticut won at all, but I think 10 points is a lot at Seattle, who we know historically has great crowds. I wouldn't put it past the Storm to steal the game here either. They have really good mojo going; we saw what happened recently when they went down to Dallas and almost led wire-to-wire against a team that had lost two in a row. Loyd gave them 40; it's hard to lose when that happens.
The Sun defense is all right, but when you look at some of the advanced stats at what post players are doing against Brionna Jones, there are some liabilities on the defensive side. Magbegor, for how great she's becoming, not only scoring inside, but she had three three's against Dallas. It's a dynamic team, they are different, and they're young and fearless.
I am happy to take this 10-point dog at home.
Pick: Storm +9.5 |
