The New York Liberty were 7-point underdogs on Saturday in Minnesota and were routed, 85-71, by the Lynx. New York has lost two straight and four of its last five. However, that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from installing the Liberty as favorites over the Atlanta Dream tonight (7 p.m. ET).
New York opened as a 6-point favorite at home. Considering the team’s recent performance and 65% of spread tickets on the Dream, should bettors fade the Liberty or buy low on New York?
Since 2005, WNBA teams coming off double-digit losses have gone 660-612-26 (52%) against the spread (ATS), according to Bet Labs. Teams that are favored, such as the Liberty, have a 278-228-8 (55%) ATS record.
There is definitely value buying low on New York despite what casual bettors might think. What makes this matchup more intriguing is that the Liberty are favorites even though the Dream have a winning record and New York is three games under .500.
Since 2005, teams coming off a loss of 10 or more points that are favored in their next game against an opponent with a better record are 103-70-2 (60%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $2,824 following this system for a 16% return on investment.
In addition to having a winning system on the Liberty, New York should benefit from an ankle injury suffered by the Dream’s Tiffany Hayes. The Atlanta guard leads the team in scoring with 17.9 points per game and is currently listed as questionable.
Regardless if the Dream are at full strength, the Liberty are offering bettors value as favorites following a blowout loss.
