WNBA Expert Picks Tuesday
Wings vs. Dream
Wings +5.5
-112
When both of these teams are at full health, the Wings are maybe a point better than the Dream on a neutral court. However, Dallas is without two key players right now in Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally, which dings their power rating by 2-3 points.
Dallas has been able to lean on Arike Ogunbowale even more and she's playing like an MVP after two games, averaging 30 points per game. The Wings have managed to split a pair of games against the Sky and come into this matchup at 1-1.
The Dream are also 101 after beating the Sparks (who are arguably the worst team in the league) and losing to a Mercury team that was missing Brittney Griner.
I have this line closer to 2.5, so I like taking the Wings +5.5 here.
Pick: Wings +5.5 (-112)
Teaira McCowan
Over 11.5 Points (-130)
Another reason I like the Wings tonight is that I think Ogunbowale is going to start getting more help from Teaira McCowan, who is coming off a game where she scored just four points in 21 minutes.
The Wings need McCowan badly right now with Howard and Sabally both out. After two games, she's shooting just 50% from inside of five feet, and she shot 61% from that distance last year. And she's doing that on nearly two more attempts per game from that same range.
McCowan is also getting to the free-throw line at half of the rate we'd expect from her after two games.
The Dream have sent their opponents to the line at the highest rate so far this season, so expect McCowan to also see an increase in free-throw attempts here.
I'm projecting her at closer to 14 points and around a 65% chance of clearing 11.5 points, so I like this at -130.
