The Las Vegas Aces are up 1-0 in the WNBA Finals after a 99-82 win over the New York Liberty in Game 1. This was highlighted by a 53-33 second half, where the Aces landed an overhand right immediately out the gate while the Liberty shelled up, never to effectively respond.
New York is facing an 0-2 deficit if the Liberty come up empty-handed in Vegas on Wednesday. And whether you're a basketball team trying to win a championship, an optimistic poker player looking for their next big hit or just a human being who is single (in actuality or for a few days), no one wants to come up empty-handed in Vegas.
Let's look at Game 1, the lessons we learned and some actionable wagers for Game 2 of Liberty vs. Aces as a result.
Aces Playing the Right Cards
The Las Vegas Aces could have played better at the start of the game — they trailed both after the first quarter and at halftime. Though it was a minuscule three-point lead, the hardly insurmountable advantage the Liberty built was noteworthy because, well, it's the damn WNBA Finals.
Furthermore, the Aces are in their Las Vegas home, where they were already 2-1 against their Brooklyn-based foe on the season heading into Sunday. In their five matchups prior to the Finals, the Aces — who were 2-3 in those contests — led at halftime three times.
Those leads were in their two victories, as well as in the Commissioner's Cup Final in Las Vegas on Aug. 15. Ironically, that game might've been the closest reflection to what we watched Sunday, though it arrived with a different result.
In the Commissioner's Cup Final, the Aces gathered themselves after a slow first quarter to build a narrow 34-32 lead at halftime. The Liberty won 82-63; why? Because of a thunderous third quarter, outscoring the Liberty 24-14. This was primarily due to their shooting — they hit 15-of-35 (42.9%) from deep for the game against the Aces, who went 5-for-26, worse than 20%.
The Liberty closed the third quarter with a 15-5 run, then stomped out the Aces for a 26-15 fourth quarter, where the barrage continued. The defense also led the charge, as A'ja Wilson was held scoreless in the second half.
On Sunday, the Aces identically pieced together a 26-16 third quarter, where they held the Liberty — who shot 8-for-20 (40%) from three in the first half — without a three for all 10 minutes. The Aces, in turn, shot 3-for-7 from deep after a 5-for-12 first half, infiltrated the Liberty interior at will shooting 60% for the quarter and responded by disrupting the Liberty on their attacks, emphasized by Wilson's three blocks.
Jackie Young, in particular, was the star of the third, accumulating 12 points on 4-for-6 shooting. The Liberty trailed by seven, but it only took a few minutes for the game to get out of hand in the fourth. The Aces broke the game open because it was just too effortless for them to drive effectively on the Sabrina Ionescu-Courtney Vandersloot backcourt, who combined for 17 points on 6-for-18 shooting.
The Aces shot 10-for-16 in the fourth — 9-for-13 on twos — and the Chelsea Gray-Kelsey Plum duo combined for 19 points on 6-for-11 shooting, along with a perfect 6-for-6 on free throws. Mix in some Alysha Clark, who played the entire quarter, and you have the Sixth Player of the Year scoring six points on 3-for-3 shooting.
Getting to the Liberty pressure points was light work for the Aces.
Who Shot Ya? Not the Liberty …
I've already said this and it played out in Game 1 — if the Aces are going to win this series, it likely won't be Wilson putting the team on her back for every game in the Finals. And, one more time, it's not shade. In team basketball, winning with the battle of the guards is more feasible than asking Wilson to outproduce Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones — two MVPs — on a consistent basis.
But on the perimeter? You can take your chances and some wins with Plum, Gray and Young against Vandersloot, Ionescu and Betnijah Laney. How the Liberty can bounce back includes, simply put, hitting shots. They settled too easily for deep threes when trying to chip away at the Aces' expanding lead. While tempting given their collective ability from downtown, it's not ideal when it plays into the Aces' defensive pressure.
If it wasn't for Marine Johannes' explosive first-half cameo — which, unfortunately for the Liberty, is closer to an anomaly than the norm — this game could've gotten out of hand sooner. Taking what the Aces defense gives you is one thing, but the Liberty weren't effective enough in converting the three-point looks afforded to them. They hit just 1-for-9 from deep in the second half after the Aces upped their defensive pressure to force more drives.
And even so, the Aces matched the Liberty's three-point makes (nine) on seven fewer attempts (22 to 29) while also hitting 20-of-23 free throws to the Liberty's 9-for-13. So not only did the Aces outshoot the Liberty by percentage from the line, they netted more than double the makes on less than double of the attempts and free throw rate (.359 to .188).
I Love the Dough, Plus Liberty vs Aces Game 2 and Series Bets
All that said, here's what I'm tracking for Game 2, along with these player props I wrote about following Game 1.
- I think the Liberty will adjust, respond and win Game 2. I like them at +180 on the moneyline, but if you like the Aces, you might be safe to play them to cover at -5 or -5.5 — we have yet to get a game closer than nine points in six contests between these two.
- For first-half betting, keep in mind that we've had the Liberty and Aces each lead at halftime and get blown out in the second half. So if the team you like to win is down at halftime, betting them at a good number during intermission already has a track record of slight success.
- If you still like the Liberty to win the series, bet them now at +320. You can also play them at +650 to win 3-1 and +800 to win 3-2.
- If you like the Aces to win the series, they're -400. That number that will improve if they lose Game 2, so it'd be best to wait there. But you can get them at +180 to sweep, +270 to win in four and +310 to win in five.
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