Game 4 of the WNBA Finals tips off tonight at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN with the New York Liberty, who currently step in as 2.5-point favorites, looking hoist their first WNBA Championship trophy in franchise history.
But given how the entire series has been a complete nail-biter each game, the Minnesota Lynx (+2.5) won't just go away that easily especially on their home floor. It a matchup that will battle test both teams, the Lynx are pushing to force a Game 5.
Between the first quarter being a standout in this series and a few player props on Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart, our experts are all over the exciting game ahead. Before the action is underway, take a look at our WNBA Finals Game 4 picks, predictions, and best bets for Friday, October 18.
WNBA Finals Picks, Predictions, Best Bets for Friday, October 18
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our WNBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bryan Fonseca's Double Player Prop for Liberty vs. Lynx
This is not a big money play, of course, but it's worth taking a shot at.
Breanna Stewart had a double-double in Game 3, and had one in Game 4 to close out the Las Vegas Aces on the road. In seven road playoff games with the Liberty, she's gotten this mark four times, two in three chances this time around.
With Collier, she had four straight double-doubles against the Connecticut Sun prior to this series. She's had eight or nine boards every game since, just missing the double-double mark, so she's the "longshot" here, if you will. Still, coming off a game where she had 22 and nine where both teams combined for just 65 boards — fewest of the series — Collier had nine boards. Stewart had 11.
The teams likely won't shoot 43 (Lynx) and 40 (Liberty) percent from three either, providing more opportunities for boards.
Pick: Napheesa Collier & Breanna Stewart to Record Double-Doubles (+250)
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Joe Dellera's Prop Pick for Liberty vs. Lynx
By Joe Dellera
Let’s run this right back after Stewie’s dominant Game 3 performance where she put up 30 points and 11 rebounds.
Stewart finally broke through and her output matched her volume. She has been best on the road this year and now is averaging 22.7 points and 10.3 rebounds on the road during the Playoffs.
The Liberty have the chance to close out this series in 4 games and bring home the title. I’ll bet on Stewart to continue her excellence.
Pick: Breanna Stewart over 30.5 PR (-130)
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Braxton Reynold's First Quarter Bet for Liberty vs. Lynx
Pick: 1st Quarter Over 40.5 Total Points (-105)
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Andrew O'Connor-Watts' First Half Bet for Liberty vs. Lynx
As dramatic and exciting as these Finals games have been, the first half results have been relatively unsurprising from a narrative perspective. In Game 1, the Liberty covered easily, coming out as the much more energetic team–to be expected after they took care of the Aces in four games.
Meanwhile, the Lynx were coming off a five-game series against the Sun with just a day of rest between Game 1 and Game 5.
We all know how Game 1 ended, with the Lynx making a historic comeback to upset the Liberty in overtime. The Liberty responded appropriately with a wire-to-wire win and an easy first half cover in Game 2.
In Game 3, it was the Lynx turn for revenge with Minnesota getting out to a big lead at half, only to blow the game themselves in the second half. With such a close matchup between these teams, I see no reason to deviate from the script we've seen so far, with the loser of the previous quarter coming out sharper in the first half of the following game.
To top things off, my model has the Lynx favored for the first two frames, so I'll gladly take the points at any plus-number.
Pick: Lynx 1H +1.5
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Bryan Fonseca's First Quarter/Full Game Bet for Liberty vs. Lynx
This is plus 400? Really? We just saw this.
In fact, we've already had two instances this series where the first quarter winner has lost.
No, this is not a shoe-in to happen a third time in four games, but this is way too long of a number considering the swings in this series and it warrants taking a responsible stab at.
I'd project this much shorter than the listed +400 price tag.
Pick: Lynx 1Q / Liberty Full Game (+400)
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