The WNBA has a jam-packed four-game slate today that features an entertaining battle between the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces and Chicago Sky rookies Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso.
Check out my WNBA first basket best bets for the June 27 slate.
Naspheesa Collier has taken Minnesota’s first shot in 6-of-16 starts (37.5%) this season. That’s the seventh largest percentage across the WNBA (min. 8 starts), so Collier’s first basket usage is extremely encouraging.
She averages the fifth most restricted area attempts per game, which bodes well against a Dallas Wings defense that surrenders the second most per game and third most during the first quarter. The Wings also bleed mid-range shots, and Collier occasionally launches from that area of the court.
Overall, the matchup and first basket usage both love Collier in this spot.
Meanwhile, Kayla McBride owns their first shot in 4-of-16 starts (25%) and cashed the Lynx’s first basket in both of Minnesota’s previous matchups versus Dallas. Although the Wings defend the 3-point line well, McBride’s usage, efficiency, and history are too good to pass up at +450 odds.
I recommend playing Collier first Lynx basket at three quarters of a unit and down to +250 odds on FanDuel. As for McBride first Lynx basket, I suggest half a unit, down to +375 odds.
Based on the odds for every player, it seems like the Sky’s chances to score the first basket are a touch underrated. Cardoso stands at 6’7” and has won 5-of-6 tipoffs, so she can defeat an Aces squad that usually takes the first shot.
Las Vegas protects the rim at an extremely high level and subsequently allows the fewest restricted area attempts by far. However, opponents take the second most above-the-break 3-point attempts per game against them.
Enter Marina Mabrey, who averages the eighth most above-the-break 3-pointers across the WNBA and also secures Chicago’s first shot at the highest rate (33%).
I would bet the following structure for Mabrey here:
- A quarter of a unit on Mabrey first basket, down to +700 odds
- A half of a unit on Mabrey first Sky basket, down to +300 odds
