It’s an incredible day for women’s hoops as the WNBA has a monster five-game slate on Wednesday, August 28.
Indiana has struggled on tipoffs, but Connecticut arguably checks in as the worst team. Therefore, I like the Fever to strike first.
The Sun boast a stingy defense, but excellent pick-and-roll play can gash them. Specifically, rollers produce the largest points per possession in the W against Connecticut. Aliyah Boston is subsequently a formidable threat, especially with Caitlin Clark’s playmaking and gravity in the mix.
Plus, Boston has secured Indiana’s first look at the second-largest rate (26.6%) and did so in 1-of-3 games against the Sun this year.
DeWanna Bonner has taken Connecticut’s first shot in 32.1% of her starts, which narrowly leads the team. She also paces the Sun in points and field goal attempts per game.
Along with desirable usage, Bonner has a favorable matchup against Indiana’s miserable defense. The Fever bleed looks from beyond the arc and are especially vulnerable to above-the-break shooters. Only Phoenix gives up more of these 3-point attempts per game.
Bonner loves to launch and takes the 17th most above-the-break shots per game in the W. Now, her efficiency leaves plenty to be desired, but opportunities should be plentiful.
It’s worth noting that across three previous matchups this season, Bonner secured the Sun’s first shot twice.
Marina Mabrey would typically be a huge threat to steal Bonner's thunder. However, Mabrey has come off the bench in Connecticut’s past two games, which removes the veteran from first basket contention.
Chicago is heavily favored to win the tip because Washington center Shakira Austin will be sidelined.
The largest opponent free-throw attempt rate belongs to the Mystics' undisciplined defense. They also are fifth in opponent offensive rebound rate.
Angel Reese averages the seventh-most free-throw attempts per game and is a special offensive rebounder. Given her efficiency woes near the basket, it would hardly be shocking if the rookie struggles to convert layups and racks up free-throw attempts.
New York has dominated this season in terms of snagging the first shot of the game, and I expect it to once again accomplish the feat.
Nobody gives up a larger effective field goal percentage on jump-shots than the Sparks. Since Cameron Brink’s injury, Los Angeles has also permitted the fourth-most above-the-break 3-point attempts per game.
Opposing guards average the third-most points and made triples, which sets Sabrina Ionescu up for a potentially explosive night. She’s a superb outside shooter who can create her own buckets against Los Angeles’ perimeter defense.
The All-Star is second on the Liberty in terms of their first-shot rate, although Breanna Stewart does possess a commanding lead.
Finally, Ionescu has had the first look in 1-of-3 matchups versus Los Angeles this season.
Let’s finish it off with another long shot.
Brittney Griner is the top tipoff player in the league, so it’s likely Phoenix gets the first look. That’s definitely a hurdle that must be overcome, but Minnesota’s elite defense has the tools to force a miss.
If the Lynx do wind up with an opportunity to score first, then it’s wise to target players who stretch the floor. Phoenix allows the most 3-point attempts per game, the largest catch-and-shoot frequency and the largest jump-shot frequency.
While Alanna Smith doesn't match Kayla McBride or Bridget Carleton’s volume, she's still shooting an elite 43.5% 3-point percentage on 3.1 attempts per game. That percentage spikes to 52.9% when only considering first-quarter triples, so Smith typically starts games on fire.
At +4700 odds, it’s worth a quarter-unit sprinkle that she flexes her sharpshooting muscles and connects from deep to open the game. I suggest playing this line down to +4000 odds.
