Welcome back! It's another fun Sunday of WNBA action with a couple solid matchups as we head down the home stretch of the season.
Things seem to have settled down a bit after the All-Star Break, which is both nice but also a bit sad. Those wild days of a few weeks past were nothing if not entertaining. (Remember when we were convinced the Lynx might just be the best team in the WNBA? Okay maybe that was just me…)
I want to use this intro to briefly address WNBA futures as we head into this stretch run. Right now, the consensus in the futures market is that Chicago (+200 PointsBet) and Las Vegas (+200 BetMGM) are co-favorites, with Seattle (+430 Caesars) a hair ahead of Connecticut (+600 BetRivers) and then a decent drop to Washington (+1200).
Of these top five, two teams jump out to me. As we will touch on later in this article a bit, the Sun are finally being slept on a bit, and seeing them behind Seattle seems like a bit of recency bias. The Mystics are also incredibly intriguing if EDD can hold up to full-time play down the stretch run here. Their defense is going to be a nightmare for any team in a three- or five-game series.
Among the lower tier, each and every team can be had for at least +10000 at one or more books. On the one hand, I can't really see any one outside this top five taking home a W championship, but on the other, I love the idea of setting myself up for good leverage later in the postseason.
The Liberty, in particular, have shown that they can beat good teams (they just toppled the Sky last night!), and they still have a few players to return. Putting a tiny sprinkle on them at +20000 (!) at PointsBet is a solid value play.
Overall, now is a great time to set yourself up for the postseason with some leverage-able futures, with my two favorites being the Sun and the Liberty.
Let's swing the focus back to the day-to-day grind.
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WNBA Odds, Picks
Click on game to skip ahead
| Matchup | Time |
| Wings vs. Fever | 3 p.m. ET |
| Dream vs. Storm | 6 p.m. ET |
| Sun vs. Lynx | 7 p.m. ET |
Wings vs. Fever
| Wings Odds | -6.5 |
| Fever Odds | +6.5 |
| Moneyline | -250 / +200 |
| Over/Under | 161.5 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here. | |
Injuries/News
A couple of familiar names this season here for Dallas: Satou Sabally has been ruled out with an ankle injury, while Awak Kuier is doubtful with an ankle injury of her own.
For the Fever, it appears as though they will be fully healthy for the Sunday matinee.
A Must-Win for Dallas
Much has been made of how the WNBA has settled quite strikingly into three tiers. The top five, where Chicago is making a decent case to be a runaway in their own tier; the middle six, who are fighting for three playoff spots; and Indiana.
The Fever have lost 11 straight, and we won't see them favored in any game the rest of the way, barring something quite strange. They are a young team, and this was always going to be a rebuilding year, so their front office shouldn't be too worried.
It does, however, mean that every team, but especially those in that playoff battle, is going to circle these Fever games on their calendar as must-wins. In a weird way, being in this tier of your own puts almost as much of a target on your back as being one of the top teams in the league because everyone is coming into your games "needing" to win.
Dallas is a team that will assuredly fall into that category of needing to win. The Wings finished seventh in the league last year, somewhat surprisingly arriving in the postseason maybe a season earlier than expected, but that raised the stakes for this year for the young squad. As of right now, the Wings sit on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason.
They have dropped six of their last eight to fall to this range, but their schedule is favorable enough the rest of the way that FiveThirtyEight's playoff projections still have them as a better than 50-50 shot to make the postseason this year.
With that in mind, I think the Wings will be fully focused for this game. They also match up pretty well with Indiana, feasting on fastbreak points and getting to the line, two weaknesses of the Fever. The one previous time the two teams matched up this year, Dallas dominated, 94-68.
I do also like the over if you can still get the number at 161.5 at BetMGM, and I really like playing the Wings spread and over combo at that number if you can get it.
Pick: Over 161.5
Pick: Over 161.5 and Dallas -6.5 (+250 range)
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Dream vs. Storm
| Dream Odds | +6.5 |
| Storm Odds | -6.5 |
| Moneyline | +240 / -294 |
| Over/Under | 156.5 |
| Time | 6 p.m. ET |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here. | |
Injuries/News
Monique Billings will miss her fourth straight game on Sunday, while Nia Coffey is questionable. Even if Coffey returned, she would play very limited minutes after a long stretch off.
For the Storm, Mercedes Russell has officially been ruled out for the season, but she is the lone player missing.
Dream Hard to Read
The Dream have been the team I have had the hardest time betting this season. I started this season wayyyy too low on Atlanta, like most folks did. When they started 6-3, I did see some things in the numbers that I liked, so I started betting them, only for them to lose 11 of their next 15.
I then saw the defense slowing down and assumed a bit of a "rookie wall" from a young team. Naturally ,they won two of their next three. I feel like I've been chasing ghosts with this team all season.
That being said, I feel like this number should be at least a point or two higher than what the books are hanging right now. Seattle has lost two in a row, so that is potentially what is capping this number at six-and-a-half instead of closer to eight, but Seattle is a definitive tier ahead of Atlanta and has been great at home all season.
Alongside Seattle, I also like the under. As mentioned, the Dream defense has slipped a bit as the season has worn on, but they are still the fourth-best defense overall this season in terms of points allowed per game. Seattle, of course, is a defensive juggernaut, allowing the second-fewest points per game this season.
I'm a little surprised this total isn't lower, but the thought may be that the place where the Atlanta defense is most vulnerable is from the perimeter, and that's where the Storm do a lot of their work. The last time these two met, the number was right on 156, but their first matchup produced a paltry 132 points.
I'm somewhat nervous about what feels like a betting trap game, so I'm going to make both leans, not picks.
Lean: Seattle -6.5
Lean: Under 156.5
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Sun vs. Lynx
| Sun Odds | -1.5 |
| Lynx Odds | +1.5 |
| Moneyline | -125 / +105 |
| Over/Under | 164.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here. | |
Injuries/News
The big pivot point for this game (and the likely reason for the delay on the lines being released), is Jonquel Jones. The Sun's star was listed as probable on Friday to return from health and safety protocols but was ruled out at the last second. As of now, she is once again listed as probable…
Other than Jones, Jasmine Thomas, who has long been out for the season, is the only other Sun on the injury report.
For the Lynx, Sylvia Fowles will miss Sunday's game with a knee injury, while Damiris Dantas and Napheesa Collier are both out indefinitely.
A DisrespeCTful Line
For a minute, it appeared as though Cheryl Reeve, Fowles, and the Minnesota Lynx were going to pull a rabbit out of their hat and turn a 3-13 start into a playoff spot somehow. There was a month-long stretch where there was just about no team in the W playing better basketball, and the rumors of Collier coming back to contribute in some way this season started to swirl.
However, the Lynx have now lost two in a row and find themselves back in second-to-last in the WNBA standings.
They are only two games out of the final playoff spot, but with a challenging schedule down the stretch, it's going to be an extremely uphill battle to reach the playoffs. The news that Fowles would return to the sidelines was arguably the final blow.
The Sun, on the other hand, are in no danger of missing the postseason. They're third in the league, and some of the advanced metrics (like basketball-reference's Simple Rating System) actually think they could be even higher than that.
Despite that, several teams have cycled into that team-to-beat slot, first the Aces, then the Sky, with hints of "don't forget about" around Seattle and Washington. The Sun, on the other hand, have no one paying attention to them. For once, it appears as though the hashtag disrespeCT is actually true!
Keep your eyes out for if Jones is officially playing, but if she is, this opening line is downright crazy. The Sun have the best Net Rating in the league, and they just beat the Lynx by 10 on Friday. I am going to play both the moneyline and the spread at this number and then potentially double down up to Sun -4 if Jones is officially playing.
Pick: Connecticut -1.5
Pick: Connecticut -125 moneyline
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