WNBA Odds, Picks, Predictions
Mercury vs. Sun
Kahleah Copper
Under 4.5 Rebounds (+102)
Kahleah Copper has stayed under this number in three of five games this season.
The Sun are the toughest team in the league to rack up rebounds against, allowing just 29 per game. That's around 4.5 rebounds fewer than the second-lowest rebounds per game allowed (Liberty).
The Sun also play at the slowest pace in the league, get to the free-throw line at the highest rate, and take the second-fewest amount of 3-pointers per game. That will hut Copper specifically, since around 50% of her rebounds this year have come on missed 3-pointers.
I'm projecting Copper closer to four rebounds tonight with a 61% chance to stay under 4.5.
Pick: Kahleah Copper Under 4.5 Rebounds (+102)
Sparks vs. Fever
Under 166
These two teams faced each other just a few days ago on Friday night. The total was 164.5 and they combed for 151 points.
My expected score for that game was a bit higher, but still only 155 points, and now the total is set even higher.
The Sparks are a team I have flagged that is due for some shooting regression and lower-scoring games going forward. The Fever are, too. They've had one of the toughest schedules to date, but have also allowed the highest free-throw percentage at 85%.
Obviously, that's outside of their control, but they should "allow" more missed free throws going forward, which will slightly lower the scoring in their games.
I'm projecting this closer to 163.
