A bad beat on the under in the Wings-Sun game kept us from a perfect night on Tuesday. It all started out promising, as both teams combined to score 32 and 34 points in the first two quarters. However, a 51-point eruption in the third quarter essentially cost us our under by three points.
All in all, I felt very confident in my reads, as even our lean to the over of 164.5 points in the Fever-Sky game came in. Saturday features just two games on the card, so hopefully, we can make them count.
Let's take a look at the matchups.
Projected WNBA Odds
| Matchup | Time | Proj. Spread | Proj. Total |
| Aces vs. Sky | 3 p.m. ET | Aces -6.29 | 169.95 |
| Mystics vs. Sun | 7 p.m. ET | Sun -5.84 | 157.37 |
Aces vs. Sky
| Aces Odds | -1.5 (-105) |
| Sky Odds | +1.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -120 / +100 |
| Over/Under | 171.5 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM. | |
Injuries & News
Riquna Williams (9.0 PPG) is the only player listed on the Aces' injury report. Williams remains day-to-day after missing their past three games with a foot injury.
Julie Allemand isn't expected to return to the Sky until June 3 due to her overseas obligations. Center Li Yueru remains day-to-day after only recently arriving in the United States last week. Yueru has yet to play in the WNBA despite being drafted in 2019.
Betting Breakdown
Chicago is one of the more veteran teams in the WNBA, led by the future Hall-of-Famer Candace Parker. Last year, the Sky won the championship despite finishing just 16-16 in the regular season. Even more impressive is that Chicago started just 2-7 in the campaign.
The slow start was primarily attributable to Parker missing eight games due to an ankle injury. Even though the Sky remained competitive in her absence, it still lacked that extra bit of quality.
This season, Chicago is off to a 4-2 start, and you can tell that the team is just brimming with confidence following its championship run. And although my model shows more of a preference for the Aces, I'm more intrigued by the total in this matchup.
Last year, the Aces led the league in pace with 82.49 possessions per 40 minutes. Yet, while they're playing at a slightly faster pace this season (82.96 possessions per 40 minutes), the most significant difference is the jump in their effective field goal percentage from 50.8% to 55.9%.
With Becky Hammon replacing Bill Laimbeer as head coach, the Aces are playing more of a perimeter game. Las Vegas has gone from 11th in 3-point field goals (5.1 per game) last year to a league-leading 10.6 per game this season.
It's worth noting that this will be a nationally-televised game, so I'd expect the players that the players will want to put on a show. And with the Aces coming off back-to-back 100-point performances, I think we'll be in for another high-scoring affair.
Historically, the over is 150-109-5 for 31.58 units when Chicago plays at home. And in this head-to-head series, the over is 16-4-1 for 10.69 units.
Pick: Over 168.5 (BetMGM)
» Return to the table of contents. «
Mystics vs. Sun
| Mystics Odds | +9.5 |
| Sun Odds | -9.5 |
| Moneyline | +375 / -500 |
| Over/Under | 155.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM. | |
Injuries & News
Washington plans to rest Elena Delle Donne (17.7 PPG) on Saturday, while Alysha Clark will miss the game due to COVID-19 protocols.
Connecticut's Jasmine Thomas (6.6 PPG) is out for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL.
Betting Breakdown
On Tuesday, I mentioned that betting the Mystics this season will, at times, be tricky.
With Delle Donne finally back with the team after missing most of last year due to a back injury, Washington will continue to manage her workload with scheduled rest days. Delle Donne has missed two of the Mystics' eight games this season, but ironically, both of the team's losses occurred in games she played in.
Last year, Connecticut swept Washington 3-0 in a season series that included two double-digit victories. While that could explain why the Sun opened as a 10-point favorite, the line has quickly moved in favor of the Mystics.
And since my model makes Connecticut closer to a six-point choice, I'd have to lean to Washington in this matchup. However, if I had to play this game, I'm more likely to look toward the total.
Connecticut is playing at a faster pace (79 possession per 40 minutes) compared to last year (75.80 possessions per 40 minutes). This quicker pace seems to be fueled by its defense, which leads the league with 24.9 points off turnovers per game. That's more than seven additional points per game compared to last season's average of 17.4 points off turnovers.
That explains why Connecticut is on a current 4-0-1 run to the over, whereas last season, it was traditionally an under team (21-11 for 8.33 units).
Keep in mind that the over has also been profitable late in this series, as it's 8-2 for 5.29 units since September 2019.
Lean: Over 156.5 (BetMGM)
» Return to the table of contents. «
